RapidDraft

Top 5 Not-So-Long Shots

pathegewald — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 16:20:00 GMT

Coming off a year in which the Elite Eight was all top seeds, I’d like to toss out some likely lower seeds that could potentially make a deep run and possibly even win the NCAA Tournament.

Tennessee – The Vols are talented enough to knock of any team on any day. I believe the tournament field this year will be lacking in “guaranteed Final Four” teams and a streaky athletic team like Tennessee can get hot at the right time and push deep into the tournament.

West Virginia – Any team coached by Bob Huggins can win games and any team coming from the Big East is obviously battle tested. The Mountaineers have all-conference performer Da’Sean Butler and a nice supporting cast and will be a match-up nightmare for some top tier teams.

Florida State – The Seminoles are primed for a deep move in the NCAA Tournament. This is their second consecutive year of putting together a nice season and I am a big Leonard Hamilton fan. Last year’s tournament loss to Wisconsin was a building block for this year’s success.

Texas A&M – The Aggies have flown perfectly under the radar for the entire season. They are well coached but might be a little light in the quality of opponent’s category. They could take a decent seed in an easier bracket and make some noise.

Maryland – This group can do some late round damage. They have an experienced coaching staff that knows how to prepare for the tournament and they are led in scoring by a senior. The strength of Maryland is a consistent scoring punch which is important now more than ever.

Conspicuous by their absence are not-so-long shots from the Big 10. I just don’t think Michigan State has enough post play, I don’t think Purdue can make a big run without Robbie Hummel, I’d love to tell you that Wisconsin has a chance, but they don’t and I’m not fool enough to try to get you to believe that Ohio State is anything less than a favorite.

RapidDraft Hoops Madness is now pre-registering and is 100% FREE to play....."a whole new way to Dance"

NFL -- Dynasty: 7 AFC Risers to Grab

eric.huber — Thu, 11 Mar 2010 01:14:00 GMT

The NFL draft is just around the corner, so it’s time for me to begin talking dynasty. This offseason I’m going to start with 14 players who are on the rise, that as a dynasty owner you should consider making a move for before it’s too late. This week I’m going AFC red with seven lucky fantasy players, who will bring you more than just a green four leaf clover.

Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles -- Oddly enough, while I was on vacation in Puerto Vallarta in February, I met a Sacramento, Cali native who was a Chiefs fan. The funny thing is that I found out that he isn’t just an average fan; he’s a diehard traveling fan who backs his team no matter what. And his first words to me were: “Jamaal Charles is truly the real deal.” And as he went on and on about his potential, and how he’ll never be the next Larry Johnson, I started to think, “How many bottles of champagne will dynasty owners be popping open this season in salute of Larry Johnson?” No, really. The truth in most cases is that if you didn’t have Mr. Johnson heading in to 2009, Mr. Charles was most likely an afterthought. Now, Mr. Johnson is the afterthought while Mr. Charles reins as the new king of Arrowhead.

So how did No. 25 reach his throne? An average of 5.9 yards per carry while toting the ball 190 times last season is a great start. Then, in his final four games Charles recorded at least 100+ yards on the ground in each, and went over the 250 yard mark during his final act against the Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium. The icing on the cake was his 40 receptions and eight total touchdowns, which are encouraging numbers for a running back who was a part of a 4-12 team.

The bottom line here is that Charles’ value continues to sky-rocket in most early mocks as he’s being taken as a low first round pick. This means that dynasty owners who desire his speedy services will have to pay a pretty penny to those who were fortunate enough to benefit from Johnson’s red and white demise.

Jets RB Shonn Greene -- The 226-pound Jet has quickly ascended up a few tiers of running backs in just one season with his unbelievable two-round playoff performance. His vision and straight-line running style along with his hard-nosed, in-your-face mentality are exactly the traits that head coach Rex Ryan is looking for in a runner. Now, with Thomas Jones on his way out and Leon Washington still recovering from a broken leg, the game of running back roulette in New York seems to be Greene’s to lose.

The bottom line here is that quarterback Mark Sanchez is still young, and will need some further development to become the complete package, so the running game should be prevalent again in 2010, especially considering the Jets have perhaps the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL. And if we were to go off of Jones’ carries number and Greene’s yards per carry rate combined from 2009, we get a “Greene” projected line of 1655 rushing yards, and 14-16 touchdowns.

The bad news for dynasty owners who don’t have him is that No. 23’s current value is currently positioned at the back half of the third round and rising in standard drafts, so if you’re looking to acquire him, like the above mentioned Charles, you’ll have to pony up, and pay the piper.

Bills RB Fred Jackson -- Question #1: How do you keep a 1,000 yard rusher off the field? Answer: You don’t. Question #2: How do you keep a running back who caught 36 passes for 371 yards off the field? Answer: You don’t. So in other words, I say the heck with Marshawn Lynch, I’m boarding the Freddy J train to a dynasty like no other, and would love to disconnect the No. 23 caboose that will sway in the swirling winds of the Buffalo air.

And while currently this definitely sounds like a fantasy; it’s a fantasy that could turn in to reality, especially if the Buffalo fans were to have their way. Jackson is the Bills Superman while Lynch is Lex Luthor, and with Terrell Owens out of the equation Freddy J may start getting the notoriety he deserves.

Remember, 2009 wasn’t the first time fans and fantasy owners received a glimpse of how good Jackson can be. During his 2007 rookie campaign Jackson ran for 82 and 115 yards on just 16 and 15 carries in weeks 13 and 14. Then, in the final week of the 2008 season Jackson churned and burned past the Patriots defense for 136 rushing yards even though New England burned the Bills 13-0.

The bottom line here is that Jackson has caught the attention of Bills coaches and fantasy owners everywhere, and should be a major fantasy factor heading in to the 2010 season. He is currently being drafted as a fifth round runner in standard drafts, but has first or second round potential once the Bills cut loose the caboose, so it may be wise to acquire his services before he becomes the next Ray Rice, especially if you have Lynch in your dynasty backfield.

Browns RB Jerome Harrison -- Last season Harrison wasn’t getting any love even as a top 50 fantasy running back, and was being taken in round 12 and beyond in most keeper leagues. This season it’s a completely different story, as Harrison not only has ascended in to the top 50, but has gravitated all the way inside the top 20, and he may not stop there.

The funny thing is that Harrison use to be in Eric Mangini’s shabby “dawg-house” only to be un-leashed once Jamal Lewis went down, and coach had no other options. Harrison ultimately took advantage of the un-leashing, as he ran for 561 rushing yards and five touchdowns in the final three games; all of which resulted in Browns wins.

Due to his escape from the “dawg-house” Harrison was recently given a second-round tender by the Browns as a restricted free agent. However, new front office head man in charge Mike Holmgren has recently hinted that Harrison may be a bit undersized, and that the team may be looking for a bigger back to help complement No. 35’s running style and take some of the load off his back.

Now, after seeing Harrison’s numbers sky-rocket due to a healthier workload, most will poo-poo the Browns idea of bringing in additional help that could contribute right away. I mean, let’s face it, Harrison averaged almost 34 carries in the four games where he eclipsed the century mark. However, I do want to point out that other runners, like Ahmad Bradshaw in New York and DeAngelo Williams in Carolina, have benefited a great deal in having an additional bruising back alongside for the ride, so a move like this could actually increase Harrison‘s value moving forward. No matter what happens, just know that Harrison will no longer be in the shadow of Jamal Lewis, and is currently being selected as a fourth round dynasty running back; a far cry from the level of respect he was receiving this time last season.

Colts WR Pierre Garcon -- A quick look at Garcon’s stats and you may be asking yourself, “Where did this guy come from?” Answer: Division III Mount Union college. Your next question might be, “Well, how in the world did he record 47 receptions for 765 yards last season, and why was he sitting on the bench in weeks 16 and 17?” Answer: Peyton Manning, and well, Peyton Manning.

Simply put; Garcon is a product of being in an almost flawless system, and having an almost flawless quarterback like Manning throwing him the pigskin. Now, I could stop right here, and you would have a simple explanation as to why Garcon currently sits as the cream filling between Hines Ward and Braylon Edwards as a late sixth round pick, but there’s more.

As I reflect upon all the Colts games that I watched last season what impressed me the most when it came to Garcon was his ability to come up big in key moments of games. With under four minutes left in the Colts week two game against the Dolphins in Miami, Garcon caught a 48-yard touchdown pass to put the Colts ahead for good 27-23. In Week 12 against the Texans the Colts were being dominated 17-0 in to the second quarter until No. 85 caught a nine yard pass from Manning for a touchdown to finally put the Colts on the board, and help jump start a 35-27 comeback win. And who can forget the AFC Championship game, when Garcon went ballistic on the Jets supposed-to-be top secondary, catching 11 balls for 151 yards, and scoring the game’s most crucial touchdown in the third quarter that put the Colts in the lead for just the second time in the game, ultimately for good.

The bottom line here is Garcon has quickly moved up Manning’s target chart, and no matter what kind of return Anthony Gonzalez makes, it wouldn’t be sensible for the Colts to move No. 85 out of the two hole opposite Reggie Wayne with how comfortable Manning is with the 23-year old. In fact, after seeing what Wayne and future hall of fame bound pass-catcher Marvin Harrison did together with Manning tossing the pigskin dynasty owners may want to jump on the bandwagon now before Garcon’s value reaches an all-time high.

Patriots WR Julian Edelman – Not to toot my own horn, but in last year’s AFC East Rookie Preview I did say, “With a knowledgeable, hard working wide receiver to learn from like Wes Welker Edelman could develop in to a good long-term dynasty prospect.” It’s something that I still believe can happen, especially after seeing how his 2009 season transpired and concluded.

With “will he stay” question marks hovering above Randy Moss, and the injury roach pestering Wes Welker as of late the Pats are going to need Edelman to have games like his final two of ‘09. In week 17 against the Texans the rookie went off and caught 10 balls for 103 yards. The following week in a playoff game against the Baltimore Ravens he caught six for 44 yards, and scored the only two Patriot touchdowns.

The bottom line here is that Edelman brings important auxiliary value to a dynasty team heading in to the 2010 season, and should be considered as a low-grade number three or solid number four fantasy option at wide receiver. He is currently being selected on the heels of Terrell Owens as an early eighth round pick in standard drafts, but will creep up draft boards that use dynasty and/or PPR formats.

Steelers WR Mike Wallace -- Up. It’s the way the former 2009 third round pick’s career is trending already in just his second season in the NFL. With Hines Ward aging, Limas Sweed’s buttery hands not melting, and Santonio Holmes need for a solid future target to alleviate the pressure, Wallace is only bound to continue to get better as his career progresses.

And like so many other greats have done in the past all it takes is one moment to expand that confidence needed to continue to grow as a player; something that No. 17 should clearly have after a late 2009 season act of heroism. See, Wallace had that shining moment in Week 15 against the Packers when he caught the game winning touchdown with literally no time left on the clock, but that’s not all he accomplished.

As a rookie, Wallace played in all 16 games, started four, caught 39 passes for 756 yards and scored six touchdowns. The most intriguing part of his game though was that, with the exception of his shining moment, all of his remaining five touchdowns came from 25 or more yards out. In other words, his new nickname in the fantasy world moving forward may just have to be “Majestic Mike.” I mean, how else should one describe his grand catches that have made him fantasy relevant heading in to 2010?

Although, he currently isn’t being selected until the 11^th round in standard drafts, dynasty owners may have to grab “Majestic Mike” much earlier, between rounds six and nine, if they want to take advantage of his major upside on a team that needs that complement deep threat to keep the running game somewhat productive.

Eric Huber is a staff writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at eric.huber@worldfantasygames.com.

-->

IDP Sleepers -- AFC South

mattschauf — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:48:00 GMT

I have to say, it's difficult to work on a weekly IDP sleepers series when you're in the midst of two dynasty startup drafts with industry peers, especially when the lineup for each includes at least seven defensive-player spots.

On the one hand, my first obligation must be to (both of) my readers, and I should assume that the guys I'm drafting against already have their own strategy and preferences and won't be swayed by my words.

On the other hand, there's a reason you go into a draft with your own list, and it's never fun to let others peek. I don't want to clue my competitors in on guys that I think are ready to break out -- even if it simply means that an owner might pick one a round or two earlier than he was already planning.

Still, I have to uphold my loyalty to my brother and the FF Librarian (my aforementioned pair of readers) and take what comes with it. And to any of my leaguemates reading this: Have some pride. Take the next highest-scoring dude from last year and leave my sleepers for me. Thanks.

Houston -- Connor Barwin, DE

The Texans brought in Antonio Smith as a free agent last off-season and got solid play from him at left end in 2009, but they still need to enhance their pass rush.

Barwin was actually outperformed as a rusher in 2009 by Smith, who scored pretty well (13^th among ends) in the rankings at ProFootballFocus.com. However, sack numbers matter more than actual pass-rush performance to fantasy players, and Smith has yet to put up more than 5.5 sacks through five years of regular NFL action.

Barwin didn't prove special in limited snaps as a rookie, but we have to remember that the second-round pick only played defense for a year in college. After three seasons as a tight end at Cincinnati, he led the Big East and ranked 16^th in the nation with 11 sacks as a senior defensive end. It was clearly his potential as a pass rusher that led to his rising hype in the 2009 draft buildup and Houston's eventual willingness to make him a first-day pick.

The young end should see increased playing time going forward and he gets more comfortable with the league and his position. Anyone playing in a scoring system that limits the impact of sacks would probably be best off ignoring him completely, but sack-heavy leagues should take a flier.

If the Texans can get after quarterbacks a bit more, continue their stronger play against the run and keep putting up enough points pressure opposing offenses, there's also room for a statistical breakout at corner. The trouble is figuring out who that player might be. Candidates at this point include Glover Quin, Antwaun Molden and perhaps still Fred Bennett -- who has underwhelmed the past couple of years after a promising rookie campaign.

Indianapolis -- Philip Wheeler, OLB

Let me first say that Wheeler's breakout isn't likely to arrive in 2010 unless Gary Brackett or Clint Session gets hurt. Now, however, is the time to stash Wheeler on a deep IDP roster.

Wheeler opened his second season last year as a reserve but emerged as the starter on the strong side after Tyjuan Hagler suffered his latest injury. Wheeler showed in starting those final seven games that he has tremendous speed and quickness, and he looked pretty decent at flowing to the ball. The speed is the key, as that has always been a focus for the Colts with their defensive front seven.

Now, Wheeler is in line to start on the strong side again this season, and that placement will limit his numbers. He and Hagler combined to surpass four solo tackles just three times in 16 starts there. However, looking back over previous seasons will show Session and David Thornton among the players manning that position for the Colts -- players who have gone on to put up attractive numbers at other spots.

Session, in particular, is signed just through the end of this season, which could open up his weakside job in 2011. Wheeler -- who played some defensive end and middle linebacker in college, in addition to the outside -- could also be a candidate for the middle the next time Brackett goes down or whenever his Colts career ends. Of course, there's also always the possibility that Wheeler makes his way to another team and finds a more productive starting role.

At the least, Wheeler is a cheap option to stash on your bench for now. If his numbers never match his speed, you won't have lost much by taking a shot.

Jacksonville -- Derrick Harvey, DE

At some point a player can't really keep wearing the "sleeper" hat, instead trading it in for a "bust" bag. Frankly, that time might have already come for Harvey. However, I'm willing to give the former top 10 pick a shot for at least one more year.

His new position coach (who has never shown even the slightest error in judgment) is a fan of Harvey and says that the Lions -- for whom he was coaching at the time -- were hoping to draft the Florida end in the middle of Round 1 before the Jaguars snatched him at 8. A long holdout cast a pall over Harvey's rookie season and seemed to stunt his development from there, though, and he didn't do a whole lot in 2009 to show us that things were changing.

Still, Harvey -- who left school a year early -- will be just 23 when the 2010 season begins. More importantly, if he holds down a starting job, he'll be lining up across from Aaron Kampman -- a significant upgrade over the players who have previously manned Jacksonville's end spots.

Kampman is reportedly slated to move to the right side after spending his Packers career on the left end, which will keep Harvey in the position he played most in 2009. Whether that changes between here and the start (or end) of the 2010 season remains to be seen, but it can't hurt for Harvey to have a chance to get comfortable. After the aforementioned doomed rookie year, Jacksonville spent the early part of 2009 trying to figure out if it wanted to go 4-3 or 3-4.

Finally set in the proper alignment, the Jaguars need only to worry about coaching up their guys. Harvey should be able to find extra motivation in the fact that he's widely labeled a bust following two low-impact seasons. If he doesn't change opinions this year, it might be time to give up on him. Until then, he's a cheap, low-risk option with upside. (Barring a sudden shift, for example, I'm on the verge of picking him up for just $4 in a dynasty startup auction.)

Tennessee -- Jacob Ford, DE

I mentioned the ProFootballFocus.com defensive-end rankings earlier in this column. If you look one spot below Antonio Smith in that linked list, you'll find this 26-year-old Titans end. You might also notice that none of the 13 players ranked ahead of Ford played fewer snaps than he did in 2009.

In two seasons of limited action, Ford has totaled 12.5 sacks for Tennessee. Unless the team drafts an immediate three-down player in April for this spot, that action shouldn't be quite so limited this year.

The departure of Kyle Vanden Bosch frees up reps for the team's other ends, and Ford has proven too good a pass rusher to not claim a fair share of those. The relatively slim 256-pounder doesn't seem likely to turn into a three-down end for Tennessee, which will limit his tackle production. He has just 48 total stops over the past two years.

Like with Barwin, however, sack-heavy scoring systems will find some value in Ford, who could be looking at his first 10-sack season in 2010.

Also check out sleepers from the AFC North and NFC North.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Give me a phat Albert, and a fast Johnson!

eric.huber — Sun, 07 Mar 2010 17:10:00 GMT

Hasn't anyone ever told you to never judge a book by its title? I mean, I can't help it that Albert Pujols and Chris Johnson are dirty names. I can't control the fact that mock drafts for both fantasy baseball and football continue to soar to new heights as March continues to, well, march on. Most of all I can't stop fantasy owners from selecting Pujols and Johnson before any other player is even thought about. Besides, why would I?

And truth be told, the Cardinals iconic first baseman and Titans speed back, although in two completely different sports, are perhaps more alike than what meets the eye.

Let's start out with the basics of what we know.

1) Both Pujols and Johnson have dominated their respective sports. That was easy, right?

2) Both superstars are fan favorites, and the biggest moneymakers for the Cardinals and Titans.

3) And most importantly "El Hombre" and "Every Coach's Dream" are what can be classified as safe first round picks.

If we dig a little deeper, though, we find that:

1A) Both Pujols and Johnson recorded a hit or 100 yards rushing in approximately 75% of the games they played in during their 2009 seasons.

2A) Both No. 5 and No. 28 hit more homeruns than any other player. Pujols did it with pure power launching 47 leather baseballs over the outfield fence. Johnson did it with pure speed, blazing by defenders like they were Wiley E. Coyote with no clue as to what just smoked past them.

3A) For just the second time in his career "El Hombre" collected double digit steals, coincidentally 16 both times (same number of games in an NFL season), and led all National League hitters with an on-base percentage of .443. For "Every Coach's Dream" 2009 was the second season for which he finished in the top five in yards per carry, and he also led all NFL runningbacks with 79 first down conversions.

The point here is that both players have earned their ways to top spots in fantasy owners' hearts, and that's where they should stay as the wintery white mess melts, the spring rain flourishes, and the summer heat gives us something to get excited about again.

Other Tidbits
For Wisconsin sports fans there was probably nothing sweeter than seeing Ryan Braun collect 203 hits in 2009, especially with pains in his wrist and hip affecting his overall swing, and plenty of talk of how cocky (what I call confident) he can sometimes get. Then again, there was the green and gold No. 12, who staked his claim in the NFC North neighborhood as possibly the best overall quarterback. Sure, Brett Favre lit up the Sunday skies in the purple of gold, but Aaron Rodgers always stayed one step ahead of him, at least in terms of fantasy numbers. Favre -- 4202 passing yards, seven rushing yards, and 33 total touchdowns (all passing). Rodgers -- 4434 passing yards, 316 rushing yards, and 35 total touchdowns (30 passing).

Speaking of Favre, who is Brad Childress trying to fool? He didn't go down to Hattiesburg just to visit his apparent new "BFF." The Vikings are running a business, and although they claim that they don't need to know, I'm sure some secret whispers were shared between coach and greying star as to which road he's headed down this season. I hope Brad has enough sense to know that he should always think the opposite of what No. 4 tells him. All joking aside, I really do hope Favre comes back, and it's not because I want to see him throw away another championship, or is it?

Some potential fantasy baseball sleepers to keep on your radar heading in to the 2010 season include: SP Tommy Hanson, RP Ryan Franklin, 1B Billy Butler, 2B Howie Kendrick, 3B David Freese, SS Asdrubal Cabrera, and OFs Julio Borbon, Carlos Gonzalez, and Garrett Jones. One deep sleeper to dial in on is Toronto SP Mark Rzepcynzski.

Who is the Shonn Greene of the 2010 NFL draft class? How about Tennessee's Montario Hardesty? Hardesty is similar in so many ways. His size almost mirrors Greene's, and is just a few strips of bacon away from being too heavy. Like No. 23 he is a patient runner, who has excellent vision, burst, and is an extremely aggressive runner. And best of all, if he finds the same four leaf clover he will most likely be selected by a team who is strong up front, and on the verge of being a great defense. I was thinking along the lines of either Greene's interdivision rival, the Miami Dolphins, or the up and coming Houston Texans.

The Anquan Boldin trade caught my eye for obvious reasons. For one his presence in the Ravens offense is not only going to make Joe Flacco's value go cuckoo as the offseason progresses, but it could move Ray Rice in to the running for one of the top three overall spots in fantasy drafts. On the Cardinals side of things, Boldin's departure busts the door wide open for Early Doucet, who exploded in the Cardinals unlikely win in the first round of the playoffs last season. Yeah, we all know that Steve Breaston should excel, but keep an eye on Doucet. And by the way, I don't buy this whole new Cardinals run-first system. Once "Beanie" Wells jams a finger the fireworks will begin with or without Matt Leinart at quarterback.

Thanks for reading!

Naval Officer Takes Fantasy Football Memories to New Reality

pathegewald — Fri, 05 Mar 2010 17:13:00 GMT

Ensign Richard Kerr is just a few short weeks away from embarking on the next chapter of his naval career. Kerr is currently assigned to submarine basic officer school in Groton, CT. and will soon become the supply and logistics officer for the ballistic missile submarine USS Kentucky, based out of Bangor, WA. In between his schooling, training and the preparation for his departure to begin his new position, he also took the time to take his dad on the “trip of a lifetime”.

Richard Kerr won a trip for two to the Super Bowl in Miami by winning the RapidDraft Fantasy Football Game that was offered to all navy personnel through the MWR (Morale, Welfare and Recreation) Department of the military. The 23 year-old Kerr took his father Bob Kerr along for the ride. They stayed at the Courtyard Marriot in Coral Gables and were treated to the many amazing sights and sounds of Super Bowl XLIV. By all accounts it was super.

Kerr had never really played any type of fantasy football game online, so he was in uncharted territory when he saw the ad for RapidDraft hanging on the gym wall at the naval base in Athens, GA. “The odds seemed like a million to one, but I logged in and it was one of the coolest sites I have ever seen. So I figured what the heck”. He played the entire season and found that early picks Adrian Peterson and Drew Brees were winners, but he also scored big with his late round pick-ups of Percy Harvin and Ahmad Bradshaw.

In the near future, Kerr will embark on an exciting new venture that will enhance his military career, help defend his country, and most likely change his life forever. “I think I’ve got the best job in the world”, said Kerr “and it was great to be able to give this trip to my dad before I take that next step…it was the trip of a lifetime”. Without doubt, Bob Kerr has had many reasons to be thankful and proud of his brave son. Now he has their trip together to South Beach to add to the list.

All of us here at World Fantasy Games and RapidDraft would like to extend our deepest thanks to all of the members of the branches of the US military for their personal sacrifices that ultimately allow all of us to continue to do what we love to do. None of us could ever put a price tag on freedom. Richard Kerr is willing to put himself at risk in defense of that freedom, and for that we are all truly grateful. It was a pleasure to bring this game to those who serve and protect our country. It was also a real pleasure getting to know Richard, and it is our honor to be associated with the greatest military on the planet.

Bob and Richard Kerr at the Super Bowl

IDP Sleepers -- NFC North

mattschauf — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 15:33:00 GMT

On the TV are 300 guys who spent the past three months carefully changing their hand positioning to shave 7 hundredths of a second off their 40-yard dashes.

The defenders are trying to show everyone that they can "flip their hips" and that they have a good "bubble." All we really know for sure, though, is that some of these guys will become immediately relevant in fantasy and render veteran teammates nearly useless.

Because we're still at least a couple of months away from figuring out just who this side of Darrius Heyward-Bey will be without use, though, let's throw a few more darts at some potential IDP sleepers for 2010.

I opened the series last week with the AFC North and will jump to its NFC counterpart this time - for no other reason than the fact that my colleague and Fantasy Lunch co-host Pat Hegewald asked me to. Here goes ...

Chicago - Henry Melton, DE

Zack Bowman will likely present good value at the point you can draft him in IDP leagues this year, but I don't think he qualifies for this spot after ranking fifth on the team in solos and picking off six passes last year. The Bears also face the coming year with a lot of uncertainty on defense. There's a real possibility that at least one starting 2010 safety and the left defensive end aren't currently on the roster.

Melton also presents plenty of uncertainty, as he missed his entire rookie season after hitting injured reserve. What we do know about the 6-3, 260-pounder, however, is that he is a supreme athlete.

Melton spent his first two college seasons as a running back and scored 16 touchdowns before moving over to the defense. As a senior lineman, he put up four sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss and 11 quarterback hurries. The one thing we did see from him in a Bears uniform in 2009 was that the team thinks so much of his athletic ability that it even put him back as a kick returner at least once in an exhibition game.

Now, Melton doesn't much of a future in the return game, but what he should have is opportunity. Adewale Ogunleye is fully expected to leave town as an unrestricted free agent, and there is no obvious heir to the starting left end position. Mark Anderson stepped in when Ogunleye missed the final two games last year and produced a sack in each outing, but Anderson has already flopped as a starter and looks like nothing more than a rush specialist and fill-in starter.

Melton, as I said, has yet to show he can be any more than that, and the Bears might well chase someone such as Julius Peppers or Aaron Kampman to take over the job. The former Longhorn, however, is at least intriguing.

Detroit - DeAndre Levy, MLB

Barring a big surprise between now and then, this 2009 third-round pick will open the 2010 season as Detroit's starting middle linebacker.

Despite coming into the league as an outside 'backer, Levy looked like the front-runner to start in the middle early in the practice season last year. The team then picked up Larry Foote via free agency, though, and left Levy to fill in where needed. That meant eight starts on the weak side in place of Ernie Sims and starts in the middle in the final two games.

In his 10 starts, Levy did put up numbers that extrapolate out to 109 total tackles and 74 solos for the season. Those aren't terrific numbers, but they would have tied him for 25th and 44th, respectively, in the league - and there's clear upside beyond that. Levy made at least eight total tackles in five of his final six starts and should get plenty of chances manning the middle full time. It won't hurt that the Lions' defense has ranked among the top 12 in most plays each of the past four seasons.

Finally, the team might even be wise to send Levy after the quarterback a few times. He didn't put up any sacks as a rookie but produced 14 over his final three college seasons.

Levy isn't the deepest sleeper in the world, but he will prove to be a later-round steal in most IDP leagues this year.

Green Bay - Jeremy Thompson, OLB

The biggest thing standing between Thompson and a real shot at starting on the left side is simply whether he'll be able to continue playing.

Thompson has yet to gain medical clearance to return since the spinal concussion on the practice field Dec. 4 that ended his 2009 season and scared everyone involved. Although that's always troubling, the fact is that plenty of time remains for him to get back on the field for 2010 workouts.

If he does return, plenty of other factors seem to be working in Thompson's favor. Aaron Kampman is all but gone, as he faces free agency and wasn't a terrific fit for the 3-4 outside linebacker job. Brad Jones, who took over when Kampman tore an ACL last season, played decently but didn't wow anyone with his pass-rush ability. Opportunity is what makes Thompson the pick here ahead of inside linebacker Desmond Bishop, who still has Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk standing in his way. (Throw in the snaps that go to Brandon Chillar as well.)

Thompson garnered plenty of attention as a 3-4 pass rusher in training camp last year and also carries 20 more pounds than Jones. If he's OK physically, look for him to compete. Otherwise, Green Bay could be looking to a free agent or a rookie for this spot.

Minnesota - Tyrell Johnson/Jamarca Sanford, S

If these two young guys wind up sharing time at strong safety, then neither will provide consistent value to IDP owners. If either claims the job outright in camp, however, he could prove pretty productive.

The job was Johnson's for 15 games in his second season last year, but his performance proved inconsistent. Sanford, then a rookie, jumped in for some extra reps ahead of his teammate late in the year and continued the productive tackling that had him leave Ole Miss as the active SEC career tackle leader.

The Vikings could use some big-play spark at safety, after getting just one interception among their starters in 2009. Johnson presents more upside on that front -- having picked off 12 passes in college -- and will never have his athleticism questioned. He had only one interception in each of his first two pro seasons, however, despite a pretty good amount of playing time in each.

If Johnson fails to nail down the job heading into 2010, the Vikings have shown that they won't hesitate to shift to the strong-hitting young Sanford. He'd likely be the more consistent provider of fantasy numbers for that reason, though Johnson likely still has the edge for the job.

Of course, Minnesota could draft a kid at the end of next month to step ahead of both. Then again, if we had sure things in this space the whole "sleeper" label wouldn't really make much sense.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

And so it begins -- spring practices underway

john.baker — Thu, 25 Feb 2010 21:11:00 GMT

Ah, taking a break for a couple weeks felt good. But, as with all things vacation, it must end and the work must go on. Fortunately for me, and you (I hope), this work entails talking about college football.

Sure, I could spend hours watching curling, but I’d never do that….never, never, never….oh, sure I would. But given the fact that I can hear 42-pound stones sliding across ice and banging into each other just over my shoulder, I don’t think it will be too hard to focus on fall 2010 by enjoying spring practice 2010.

And with that, I’d like to thank the Duke Blue Devils for jumping onto the spring practice bandwagon so early. In their honor, we’ll talk about the Dukies first.

He’s the Duke, he’s the Duke:

Duke has two main focuses this spring – sort out its offensive line issues and find a quarterback. Well, you say, isn’t Sean Renfree the de facto starter after getting some action last season when Thaddeus Lewis was hurt?

Not so fast, my friends. Renfree is rehabbing a bum knee and that’s giving Brandon Connette and Sean Schroeder all the reps so far this spring. While Renfree would seem to be the favorite, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that one or both of these youngsters could make enough of an impression now as to force a real quarterback battle through the summer and into the fall.

Duke held a 50-play scrimmage last week (strange to be saying that in February isn’t it?) and the children looked pretty sharp. Schroeder hit on 10-of-13 throws for 127 yards, including a 65-yard scoring strike to Conner Vernon. Connette was less accurate, connecting on 9-of-19 passes for 52 yards.

Coach David Cutcliffe has been noncommittal on a starter, preferring to let the spring play out and await Renfree’s return to evaluate all three candidates. However, as we saw at Oregon State when Sean Canfield was hurt and Lyle Moevao won the job in 2008, then the reverse happen in 2009, injuries can provide opportunities to players – some of whom take that opportunity by the throat and won’t let go.

Duke will have to throw the ball effectively this fall and that means they need a quarterback who can get the ball to the underrated Donovan Varner (65-1,047-8) and Vernon (55-716-3).

Renfree would seem to have the inside track based on his 68 percent completion percentage and 330 yards and 4 touchdowns in the six games he played in 2009, but his injured status certainly takes away a chance he had of securing that spot. Now, Duke coaches get the chance to work with and evaluate a diverse palate of replacements. Let’s face it, this battle will be won in the fall, but I’m guessing we’re going to have a battle – a battle that wasn’t expected initially.

As a reminder, Renfree had knee surgery at the end of the season and will be very limited in spring practice. He won’t be completely off the radar. Another interesting item is that although Renfree is a redshirt freshman, he’s actually the oldest quarterback on the roster at the moment. One coach’s youth is another’s salty veteran.

Other schools that will open spring practice in February are:

Miami (Feb. 23), Texas (Feb. 26), Army (Feb. 17), Air Force (Feb. 18), San Diego State (Feb. 20), Stanford (Feb. 22) and LSU (Feb. 25).

Miami:

Thus far, the Hurricanes have had only a few days of practice, but a couple names to keep in you hip pocket could be receiver LaRon Byrd, who has been catching the ball well in early practices, and running backs Mike James and Storm Johnson. Johnson, a freshman, is particularly elusive, even between the tackles.

Army:

You’ve heard me offer the opinion that in college football fantasy circles, a quarterback who can run and throw is as valuable as any big-armed, big-name quarterback at a big school. Army quarterback Trent Steelman is working hard to channel his inner Ricky Dobbs, the Navy quarterback who produces offense in wonderful bunches. Steelman, who was thrown into the starting quarterback job as a true freshman in 2009, is turning heads in coach Rich Ellerson’s second spring practice, demonstrating a greater command of the option offense while improving his throwing motion.

Steelman figures to be much improved, as do the Black Knights, who return 16 starters. Here are a couple of other names to ponder come the fall – fullback Jarrid Hassin, a bruising, banging ballcarrier, and Brian Cobbs, a very fast halfback who spent 2009 as a defensive back.

The Black Knights are looking to get more push with the fullback and find a halfback who can make teams pay on the outside if they make the wrong reads. So far this spring, those two are forming a nice package with a much-improved Steelman.

Air Force:

The Falcons have one gnawing concern offensively and that’s replacing all five starting offensive linemen. Quarterback Tim Jefferson will get a few new passing wrinkles added to the offense, but without an o-line that can create gaps, creases and other essentials for the triple-option, this offense will be a huge question mark.

Jefferson is continuing to rehab from a minor procedure on his right knee, so right now Connor Dietz is getting the first-team reps with the offense. Jefferson is the key to this offense, but that offensive line is the key to Jefferson’s success. Keep an eye on this group through the spring.

San Diego State:

The Aztecs opened practice with the memory of losses to Wyoming and UNLV still fresh and the hope that big-armed quarterback Ryan Lindley will take the next step in his development. While coach Brady Hoke is tinkering with some defensive alignments and personnel in the early days of spring camp, a couple offensive pieces that could produce fruit are also taking place. Keep the name of running back Ronnie Hillman in mind. Hillman, who is very fast, wasn’t on campus last year after some academic issues surrounding his entrance to the university. He’s on hand now and could very well be a difference-maker offensively. Fullback Brandon Sullivan looks like he’s put on muscle and Hoke has already said he wants to use Sullivan in a more offensive role than just blocker.

Another interesting development for Lindley is that Vincent Brown has returned and DeMarco Sampson was granted a sixth year of eligibility, so the wide receiver corps are going to be very, very productive. If the Aztecs can generate a running game and big plays with a guy like Hillman, Lindley is going to find plenty of yardage and overall production with his receivers. Brown is completely recovered from his broken thumb and should again be one of the nation’s best. Ooh, did I mention the offensive line returns intact. SDSU could have an offensive unit that requires attention in 2010.

Stanford:

The race is on to see who will replace Toby Gerhart as Stanford’s running back. The names in place as spring practice dawns are many, the questions many. Stepfan Taylor and Tyler Gaffney are the two horses in the lead so far. Taylor ran for more than 300 yards as Gerhart’s understudy in 2009, but does not have a clear path to the job. Gaffney got some run as well and senior Jeremy Stewart, who was Gerhart’s backup through four games before getting hurt, is looking to get back into the mix. Here’s a fourth name to keep in mind – Usua Amanam, a highly touted back who was waylaid by injuries early last season and never saw the field.

Let’s be honest, this is going to be Andrew Luck’s team in 2010 and the quarterback would seem to be poised to have a banner year, but he’s going to need a running back(s) to be productive to keep defenses honest. The battle for the top spot should be spirited and, hopefully, will produce a clear No. 1 who delivers some stats from the outset. If that happens, Stanford could produce a nice little fantasy back to go along with Luck. He won’t be Gerhart, but if the winning back can get close to 1,000 yards and double-digit scores, he’ll have value. So far, the backs have done little to separate themselves at this early juncture of spring practice.

IDP Sleepers -- AFC North

mattschauf — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 06:16:00 GMT

So, the past couple of years I did a series in which I looked ahead to the next season and picked one relatively deep potential IDP sleeper per team. The first time around, I actually made it through every team. Last year, though, I inadvertently raised the question of how many installments you actually have to supply to call it a series.

Some players have gone on to realize good fantasy value. Some have never become starters. That's the nature of a sleeper. He might wake up right away and carpe his diem, or he might be like my wife and shoot dirty looks when you try to wake him up -- even if his alarm went off 45 minutes ago.

Anyway, this year I'm going to try to get the sleeper train rolling again, and I'm going to kick it off in what I think might be the most intriguing division for 2010 IDP breakouts. Obviously, some of the picks I make in this space might look stupid after free agency arrives and the draft occurs, but we have to talk about something in these early months.

Baltimore -- Dannell Ellerbe, ILB

This young Raven opened the 2009 season as a promising young player in a crowded Ravens linebacking corps. He ended it as the starter next to Ray Lewis for the final three regular-season games and two playoff contests.

At 6-1, 243 pounds, Ellerbe brings nice size to the position and already plays the run well. He'll need to develop in pass coverage to avoid being taken off the field in passing situations, though. Ellerbe broke up just one pass in his entire college career and got to just one last season.

The challenge for his numbers is that Ellerbe took over the role that used to belong to Bart Scott, who enjoyed a huge 2006 but otherwise helped clear the way for Ray Lewis to make plays much of the time. With Lewis' career winding down, however, the Ravens will have to develop other playmakers at the spot and rely on others to make some of those plays even before their leader dances spasmodically off into the sunset.

Ellerbe posted modest tackle totals (until a 10-tackle effort in the playoff loss to Indy) and didn't get to chase quarterbacks much, but the undrafted former Bulldog posted 4.5 sacks as a college junior and should start to get more responsibilities as he gets comfy in the pros.

(Runner-up: Lardarius Webb, CB -- No, I won't be doing this for every team, but I couldn't keep from mentioning the 2009 rookie who won a starting job and returned kickoffs. Webb showed to be a willing tackler from his corner spot, broke up six passes and averaged 26.2 yards per kick return. Had his season not ended early with an ACL tear, he might have been the pick here ahead of Ellerbe. He should be stashed in keeper formats, and keep an eye on his progress as the season approaches.)

Cincinnati -- Rey Maualuga, MLB (?)

All I can say is that it's about friggin' time that reports start to surface of the Bengals moving him to the middle.

I enjoy a good bowtie as much as the next guy, but Dhani Jones has a pretty clear ceiling on his value beyond that. To keep him at middle linebacker and work Maualuga in on the strong side as a rookie simply didn't make any sense to me.

Maualuga was a beast of a middle linebacker in college, piling up hard hits and big plays all over the place. He might not have been the most disciplined of middle men, but getting him as much seasoning as possible in the position as a pro would seem like the best way to fix that.

If this rumored move comes to fruition -- as it should -- Cincinnati will at least head into its 2010 opener with its best middle linebacker since Odell Thurman decided that being a jerk was more fun than playing in the NFL. I think Maualuga -- who had six sacks as a college junior and 12 pass breakups in four years at USC -- could rank among the top 15 fantasy linebackers right away.

Cleveland -- Marcus Benard, OLB

One of the Browns' biggest issues in recent seasons (and there have certainly been plenty to choose from) has been finding a quality pass rush. Kamerion Wimbley put up 11 sacks as a rookie but hasn't topped 6.5 in a season since, largely because his team has been devoid of other consistent threats.

Benard, a 2009 rookie, hasn't seen enough time yet to prove his consistency, but he got fairly well-acquainted with opposing backfields late in the year. He posted a half-sack or more in three of the final four games and tallied seven quarterback hits over that span. Football fans might remember his introductory two-sack performance in that Thursday-night upset of the Steelers.

With the Cleveland linebackers -- a group already lacking a clear hierarchy -- beset by injuries last year and so much turnover in the team leadership this winter, it's impossible to know how things will shake out. Benard, however, did enough in the final quarter of 2009 to at least get a shot at an increased role in 2010.

Pittsburgh -- Lawrence Timmons, ILB

OK, this last one's a bit of a copout. Folks who follow individual defenders have to be well aware of Timmons by now, but I just don't like anyone else to qualify here.

The Steelers need to figure out their corners still and might introduce someone there for 2010 with sleeper potential. William Gay played generously enough to keep getting thrown at, but how much higher than 70 solo tackles can we really expect him to go. There might be some shuffling up front to get 2009 first-rounder Ziggy Hood more playing time, but Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel are still around.

Timmons started 13 games, played in 14 and came away with seven sacks and four forced fumbles, but he still seems to present upside. Health has been a key issue, stunting his rookie-year progress before interrupting last year. If he plays a full schedule, Timmons should easily rank among the top 20 linebackers. Further growth in his tackle numbers will likely be spurred whenever James Farrior moves on.

So, yeah, Timmons looked good heading into last year. And he still does.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Where will the LT bolt strike next?

eric.huber — Tue, 23 Feb 2010 00:56:00 GMT

Here I sit, on a dark night, in a dark room, in front of very bright computer screen, reading the dark news about perhaps my favorite NFL player since Cris Carter. I sit in my dark tan chair with nothing on but a light blue and gold No. 21 Ladainian Tomlinson and pair of Scooby-Doo boxers; yes, I still have the heart of a child.

What is it about Tomlinson that I like so much?

Is it that he's an exciting player to watch and has won me a few games while in his prime?

Is it his child-like smile?

Or is it that he has the heart of a champion and is a true American Idol?

How about all of the above?

Mark my words: He will land somewhere and get a shot at that Lombardi Trophy that keeps escaping him before he retires. But the question of the day is: With who? Below are a few teams that I think would love to have his running services come 2010 as they gear up to make a run at the coveted shiny silver football. Just keep in mind that this is just pure speculation mixed with a little bit of optimism.

New England Patriots
With rumors swirling around Laurence Maroney possibly packing his bags, a move to New England could make sense for Tomlinson. Plus, the Patriots always seem to reincarnate veterans who seem to be on their last legs.

Houston Texans
With the way Steve Slaton struggled last season, a move to Houston could not only help the Texans immediately, but could make Slaton himself a better overall running back. Plus, the Texans fit the format for what Tomlinson could be looking for in a team of choice in that they're one player away from being a serious contender. That player could be him.

New York Giants
It's hard to believe that the Giants could be interested considering that they already have Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, but are they truly happy and safe with those two running every week? Bradshaw is intriguing, but as his nagging foot injuries showed in 2009, he may not be cut out to be an every down runner. As for Jacobs, well he seems to have lost his intensity; the one thing that made him a real threat in the first place. The bottom line is that the Giants are contenders and probably would have no problem signing Tomlinson if they get a Jacobs or Bradshaw trade partner lined up first.

Green Bay Packers
This is the most interesting and optimistic possibility. The Packers are looking for help in the secondary, most specifically at cornerback. Charger cornerback Antonio Cromartie continues to see his name being dangled as possible trade bait for a strong runner. This is where it gets intriguing for the green and gold. Now that Tomlinson is a free man, if the Packers wanted to, they could very easily deal Ryan Grant to where Tomlinson made his home for so long to fill a need. They could then follow that up by bringing Tomlinson on board. The only thing that may turn him off the green and gold is that Charles Woodson wears his number No. 21 already.

Don't be surprised if he lands in........
Washington. A move for Tomlinson would give the Redskins a great reason to get rid of the disgruntled Clinton Portis, and start old, but fresh.

NY Jets: Out with Jones and in with Tomlinson?

Cincinnati: Imagine the one-two combo of Benson-Tomlinson.

Team he most likely will not go to......
Carolina: With DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart in the fray a potential Ladainian spotting in Panthers blue is highly unlikely.

The bottom line here is that if No. 21 lands in the right, winning environment with no legs in his way he will excel, and could easily turn in to a fantasy force during the 2010 season. Let the sweepstakes begin!

Thanks for reading!

Cowboys backfield an attractive muddle

mattschauf — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 15:52:00 GMT

This week mark's my second round of inclusion in Fantasy Football Trader's weekly roundtable column. This week's question (followed by my answer -- abridged from my normal long-windedness to fit the format) ...

Which Cowboys RB will present the most value at fantasy drafts this Fall?

This is a wide open question with answers that can vary depending on interpretation, but I'll try to answer as straightforwardly as possible:

Marion Barber will lead the group in touchdowns and drive you crazy with the injury reports. Felix Jones will improve significantly on his first two seasons, produce the most yardage and probably miss a couple of games. Tashard Choice will continue to make fantasy owners wish he played for a different team, unless one of the other two suffers a significant injury.

Barber has been at his most consistently productive when spelled by another back. His breakout 16-touchdown 2006 came with just 135 carries (and 158 total touches) to Julius Jones' 267. Barber's next most productive year came in 2007, with just a 55 percent share of the carries that went to him and Jones.

In 2008, a Thanksgiving Day toe injury made it tough to know how Barber would have held up down the stretch, but there's no denying that he wore down late in 2009. After averaging 4.6 yards a carry through the first 10 contests (missing one), he went for just 3.5 per rush in the final five games - including pedestrian outings against lackluster run defenses such as San Diego and New Orleans. That precipitated a mere 11 carries and 18 yards in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, a new Jones was finally getting a larger share of the load and looking good while doing it. The 5.9 yards per carry is no illusion, as even when Jones picks up 5 or 6 yards, he looks like he's a step or two from breaking a long one. He'll probably top out in the 12-15 carry a game range to keep from burning out, but Jones' 30 rushes in the two playoff games were twice as many as either of his backfield mates.

Should he average just 12 attempts per game, Jones would need just 5.2 yards a rush to reach 1,000 for the season. He doesn't look like he'll become a prime receiving option soon, but Jones should be able to reach six or seven touchdowns along the way. I'd take him ahead of Barber at this point.

Finally, there's Choice, who could well be the most consistent producer of the group if he got the chance. You could make an argument for him as the top value, considering Choice will go much later than the other two (seven rounds later, in Round 13, according to very early Fantasy Football Calculator numbers). He'll be a very risky fantasy play, however, unless injury befalls Jones or Barber.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Way-too-early mock conclusions

mattschauf — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:36:00 GMT

About a week ago, I gave some early reaction to a mock draft hosted by Razzball's Chet Gresham, so I think it's fitting to take a look back now on the completed exercise.

The primary lesson here, was that I won't be using CouchManagers.com anytime soon. The price (free) was certainly right and the interface actually pretty good, but the slickest site in the world wouldn't cover for a lacking player database.

I was a little worried when looking through the draft list to find things like Torry Holt still listed as a Ram, but it's easy to laugh at something like that and move past it. Perhaps, like I, they want to pretend Holt's 2009 never happened.

The absence of 2009 rookies such as Mike Thomas, Mike Wallace and even a few others not named Mike was more annoying, particularly considering that classmates such as Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks could be found. Guys such as Devin Aromashodu and Justin Forsett who have been around the league for a couple of years but played sparingly were also missing, but the topper was the absence of San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith.

Maybe Couch Managers was created by a mourning Niners fan with a Jesse Sapolu jersey and an Aaron Rodgers voodoo doll, but I'm of the opinion that your football-draft database should contain the still-active No. 1 pick from five years ago.

Site gripes aside, though, the draft itself was fun and did offer a few insights that may be valuable later. Here are my round-by-round picks with some notes ...

Round 1-Pick 1 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville

I'll put off full evaluation of the top 2010 pick until much closer to real draft time. For what it's worth, though, I made my case for MJD over Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson (even in this non-PPR format) last week.

2-12 Miles Austin, WR, Dallas

The reasoning for my developing fantasy crush on Austin can also be found in that previous article. I believe he'll be landing on my team in a lot of drafts in 2010.

3-1 Randy Moss, WR, New England

He's getting old. He's wearing down. He dogs it sometimes (or has one of his best games ever, depending on who you ask). He gave us a measly 11 touchdown catches in the Year of the Cassel, and could muster only 13 to tie for the league lead in an injury-riddled 2009. I'll take my chances.

4-12 Brandon Jacobs, RB, N.Y. Giants

I considered Jacobs on my previous turn but decided that I was willing to wait to see if he lasted and couldn't pass on that receiver duo. We all know that injury is the big concern with him, but you just have to go in knowing that you're likely to miss him for three games or so. Playing 13 games in 2008 and just 11 in 2007 didn't keep him from reaching 1,000 yards both years. In the three seasons he has carried at least 200 times, Jacobs has twice finished the year with a 5-yard per-carry average. His 2009 was troubling, but Jacobs finally admitted after the season that he should have just rested his early injury instead of pushing through it at limited productivity. Even with Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs brings beast potential in a non-PPR format.

5-1 Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia

This is earlier than I'd take him most of the time, but the surprising early run on quarterbacks left plenty of runners and receivers on the board while thinning the ranks of passers. Of course, I'd be lying if I said I didn't slap on my Eagles-fan homer goggles whenever I draft McNabb, but I trust him more than Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning - the next three quarterbacks selected after this spot.

6-12 Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo

I have to think Jackson wouldn't stick around this long in a format that counts receptions, but I think he's very good value at this point even without that. Obviously, his stock rises if Marshawn Lynch does actually leave. Even if he doesn't, though, Jackson has averaged half a yard more per carry over the past three seasons than the Bills' official starter, including a very impressive 4.5 per rush behind last year's crappy line.

7-1 Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans

I wasn't required to take any math in college, but I'm pretty sure that nine scores among 45 catches means that 20 percent of his receptions put him in the end zone. Two-thirds of his catches overall went for first downs. This is a big-play guy in a high-scoring offense who only started seven games last year. His production will only increase with more opportunities.

8-12 Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans

Whereas I wonder if Jackson would go earlier in PPR, I know Bush wouldn't drop close to this point. A rocky season that included periodic benching still resulted in eight total touchdowns for Bush, though, and he added two more in the playoffs. After getting pulled in the near-loss at Washington, Bush showed more willingness to run with power and should get more touches in 2010. I don't think he'll be leaving the Saints (despite any contract questions/issues), but a new team would likely increase his touches further. Bush isn't a guy to trust as a non-PPR starter, but he's well worth a shot at the end of Round 8 as a No. 4 back.

9-1 Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo

Poor Lee Evans. If this guy could get a real NFL quarterback, he could really do some things. As it was, with Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick occasionally floating passes far enough to reach him, Evans put up seven touchdowns last year on a team that saw no other player score more than four. That was the fourth time in his six seasons that Evans has scored at least seven times despite also entertaining the likes of Kelly Holcomb, J.P. Losman and the ghost of Drew Bledsoe. Even if Buffalo continues to not answer its quarterback question, Evans is a solid guy to plug in for bye weeks, particularly without reception scoring.

10-12 LenDale White, RB, Tennessee (for now)

I wanted no part of this guy in drafts last year, following his 15-touchdown outlier of a 2008. I'll gladly take a shot in Round 10 of non-PPR at this point, though, with White likely heading off to some Chris Johnson-free team. Seems to me like he'd be an ideal target for Seattle.

11-1 Josh Morgan, WR, San Francisco

His failure to latch onto a more prominent role early in the season, followed by the casting of Michael Crabtree's shadow over the second half, should ensure that Morgan can be had late once again this season. It's easy to go cold on a player who falls short of hype for two straight years, but Morgan will be just 25 when the season starts and has yet to play with a stable quarterback situation. He's not going to be the Niners' No. 1, but a season of 60 to 65 catches, 700 yards and five or six touchdowns should be well within reach.

12-12 Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh

I'd have jumped on a tight end much earlier if we were getting a point per reception. I almost always won't when we're not. This is exactly why. Miller ranked among the position's top 10 in receptions, yards and touchdowns (with the TDs right in line with his previous output) and came off the board as the 15^th tight end. Seattle's John Carlson would have been fine with me here, too, and he wound up going undrafted. This is a deep position, particularly if reception totals don't specifically matter.

13-1 Chad Henne, QB, Miami

I could try to blame the site's player listings, but it's my own stupid fault for not realizing that Carson Palmer remained on the board at this point. One should definitely not read this as a statement that I prefer Henne over Palmer, which I certainly do not. That said, I do like Henne as a late-round fantasy backup, a guy who could be worthwhile for a couple of games. He can likely be had a few rounds after Joe Flacco, and I think he carries less bust potential (re: multiple-interception game) than Matt Cassel.

14-12 Miami D

I was the last one to pick a defense, but I certainly don't think the Dolphins are destined for a No. 12 fantasy ranking. Increasing Cameron Wake's playing time should help with sack numbers, and Miami looks very strong at corner. Veteran Will Allen says he expects to reclaim his starting job, but he might not be able to with a couple of good young cover guys developing. Vontae Davis brings the kind of big-play ability that helps a defense's fantasy numbers. Most of all, of course, grabbing a defense too early at this stage -- before the NFL draft and open of free agency -- just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. It's one thing to judge the value of individual players in February but a whole other thing to get a handle on an entire group.

15-1 David Akers, K, Philadelphia

I guess I had to pick a kicker. I'll take a dependable veteran who tied for the league lead in field goals made and ranked second in scoring last year, backs a strong offense and happens to play for my favorite team.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Football's done. Time for ... FOOTBALL

mattschauf — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 18:55:00 GMT

So, I guess most football-heavy folks are probably going through some level of withdrawal right about now, but I have to admit that I'm rather excited.

For starters, we're now fully into NFL draft season, and the draft is simply my single favorite sporting event of the year. The Super Bowl is cool, but I've watched a team I had rooting interest in at the time play in that game just twice in my life -- and neither ended in victory.

The NFL draft, on the other hand, is the ultimate setting for those of us who find thrill in projecting what particular athletes will accomplish, what specific teams should or will do and which year we'll actually see Mel Kiper and Todd McShay get into a slap fight. (Actually, Mike Mayock's terrific material, combined with the presence of Chris Berman and Meshawn on ESPN, has me now watching NFL Network almost exclusively on draft weekend.)

It's fun this time of year to get better acquainted with the prospects and start trying to figure out what we can expect from them in fantasy.

And on that fantasy front, I've recently jumped on board Fantasy Football Trader's weekly off-season roundtable and kicked off the inaugural draft for a new dynasty league with 15 of my industry brethren. A dynasty format has been the one thing really lacking from my fantasy portfolio recently, as other commitments and lack of connection with leaguemates led me away from my last such foray.

This league even uses IDPs, so I'm quite excited to get things going. I'm sure I'll mention the draft and the league itself from time to time in this space, in case anyone's interested (... or even if you aren't).

Speaking of defensive players, the last thing that has me anxious for this game-less time of year is that I plan to get more off-season content posted. The first launch of RapidDraft and other work duties tended to sap writing time in 2009, but I don't plan to let the same happen this time around.

In particular, I'm looking forward to restarting the division-by-division IDP-sleeper series that stalled out last winter, and there has been some interesting recent news on the defensive front that could impact some of those sleeper situations. Namely ...

The Giants release MLB Antonio Pierce

This wasn't a surprising move. I'm no NFL personnel guy or anything, but a veteran linebacker coming off a neck injury who will turn 32 in October and already appeared to be in decline doesn't seem like all that attractive a prospect.

There will be plenty said about the leadership New York's defense will lose with Pierce gone, but we're only concerned with the tangible impact on the field. The fact is that Pierce's production had slipped noticeably after a couple of pretty good seasons to start his stint with the Giants. Youngster Jonathan Goff got a crack at the middle job after Pierce hit injured reserve last year, but he fared about as well as Gerris Wilkinson has every year he headed into camp as the weakside favorite. That is to say, Goff doesn't look like the strongest bet to open 2010 in that spot.

It's way too early for us to know who will, but we can start to assess the possibilities. Chase Blackburn got a turn in 2009 as well but continues to look like little more than a fill-in player. Danny Clark spent most of the past two seasons starting on the strong side for the Giants, but he previously manned the middle in Oakland's 4-3. He will turn 33 in May and stands as no kind of long-term answer, though.

Perhaps the Giants will take a look at Michael Boley or Clint Sintim inside, but they seem more-likely pegged for the starting outside spots. That leaves free agency -- with little beyond Gary Brackett on the unrestricted market -- and the draft as options. This year's linebacker class looks strong, so I'd expect the Giants to grab a prospect at some point within the first three rounds.

Come May we should have a better idea of who will (or at least could) take over for Pierce.

Porter released by Dolphins, thrown back into captivity by NFL

Another non-shocker of a move saw Miami try to get rid of a loudmouthed, aging player at a position where the team doesn't need him. The surprising part, of course, was the league's declaration that salary-cap facts made the move illegal before the new fiscal year starts.

Whenever he actually leaves South Beach, all that matters here is that the Dolphins will be getting rid of Porter, which should excite IDP owners. This should help us to finally find out just what kind of production Cameron Wake can offer in the NFL.

Miami coaches failed to get the former CFL defensive player of the year any kind of consistent playing time, but what Wake accomplished in that sparse action indicates that he'll be a strong sack factor with more snaps. According to ProFootballFocus.com, only the lack of opportunities kept Wake from ranking among the league's most productive pass rushers in 2009. Had he reached the 200-snap threshold at the same performance level, the outside linebacker would have led their Pass Rushing Productivity rankings.

Wake did put up 5.5 sacks in limited 2009 action (though the first 2.5 shouldn't count, because they came against the Bills), so opportunity just might be the only thing between him and double digits.

Seahawks sign Ricky Foley

I saw him referred to as both "Ricky" and "Rick" in reports on the signing. I'll stick with the former, because I think the latter makes him sound more like a one-hit popster from the '80s or a Little League coach.

Wake's trip to the NFL from the Canadian league last off-season likely helped open the market for 2009's CFL co-leader in sacks to do the same. Like with Wake last year, we can only wonder about the impact and playing time Foley will have in 2010.

Similar to Wake in size, Foley's situation is made more interesting by the fact that he joins a defense with little proven pass-rush ability and plenty of potential to change. New coach Pete Carroll retained Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator, but we have to assume that alterations will be made to a defense that tied for fifth-fewest sacks while allowing just more than 24 points a game.

The coaches involved are steeped in 4-3 fronts, so we should assume at this point that Seattle will stick to that - even if the ability on hand at linebacker might befit a switch to 3-4. One suggestion is that the team might introduce the "elephant" position that combines linebacker and defensive end responsibilities and was formerly made famous by players such as Charles Haley and Lawrence Taylor.

We'll have to see how everything gets sorted out in Seattle. For now, the best guess on Foley is he'll play a situational rush role at end, as the 245-pounder would likely have trouble holding up in extended duty on early downs. Limited snaps, of course, would limit his scoring chances.

E.J. Henderson targeting May workouts

This is a situation we'll have to monitor up to and through the time that Henderson gets back on the field, after the Alvin Mack-style injury we all watched on national TV. If he does make it back to some level of on-field workouts by May, being ready for the regular season in September should be realistic. Jasper Brinkley sure didn't do anything while filling in to make the team second-guess returning the job to Henderson ASAP.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Situational Lefty

pathegewald — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 19:34:00 GMT

So football season is officially over, and with the exception of the NFL Draft and some soon-to-be well-placed banter regarding NFL labor relations, we have a pretty decent stretch of time to fill with other sports. For the record, I am no baseball expert and would never even attempt to portray one. I am equally marginal at anything related to fantasy baseball, but I do enjoy the sport. The best way to describe me is to liken me to that one person on a baseball team that best represents me, the situational lefty.

Aside from actually being left-handed myself, I find the situational lefty to also be the person that I would most want to swap places with if such a situation were to arise. The situational lefty is the guy you should all want your left-handed sons to grow up to be. He is always going to have a job. He is making more money than he could ever spend. He’s got a beautiful wife and three great kids going to the best schools. He’s got a killer house near where he grew up and another sweet condo in Phoenix. He hasn’t had to trade his privacy for gluttonous fame and he’s got the biggest bank account on the whole team.

Take a look at a guy like Brian Shouse. He made 2 million dollars in 2008 with the Brewers, and he made 1.35 million dollars in 2009 with Tampa. You just know that he’s going to end up on the roster and get paid in Boston to come in to about 25 games for the Red Sox and face about 80 batters, most of whom are left handed hitters. He will succeed more than he will fail, and every night he gets to decide whether or not he wants to be recognized. He can choose to call and get a reservation at the coolest high-end restaurant in Boston and be recognized by the on lookers that are there to eyeball celebrity. Or he can hit a smaller place, off the beaten path, and get in and out potentially unnoticed. Either way, it is his choice.

The major leagues are littered with guys like Brian Shouse. Scott Eyre has made around 3 million dollars a year since 2006 just coming into situations and having some success. You never hear about guys like this getting arrested or showing up on the front page of the funny papers. They get to play a kid’s game for tall money. And they also get to keep their souls while doing it. I don’t mind it for one second if I am seen as Bush League because I can more relate to Scott Schoeneweis than I can to Cliff Lee, but I can assure you I’ll be taking Cliff Lee plenty on my Sports Buff Baseball Challenge rosters. I highly doubt if I will be seeking out Schoenenweis to fill my team when the chips are on the table….and Scott is OK with that I’m sure. He gets it.

So now you know what you can expect from me when it comes to talking about baseball. I can’t compete with a front-line starter so I won’t even try. I can hopefully chime in to a given situation regarding baseball and have some success. My Blog Talk Radio co-hosts Matt Schauf and Big Daddy Wood are well versed in fantasy baseball and they will help to keep the Fantasy Lunch current and informative. I’ll just try not to throw gas on the fire.

Also, check back to RapidDraft often for two upcoming releases. Our 2010 RapidDraft Hoops Madness will be released soon as well as our 2010 Football Mock Drafts….now football and the Big Dance are two things I feel that I am a front-line starter in, but that is another story for another time.

Don't doubt Jermichael Finley

mattschauf — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:21:00 GMT

I've just joined the folks taking part in the weekly off-season roundtable hosted by Fantasy Football Trader. My first assignment was to assess whether Green Bay tight end Jermichael Finley's 2009 was fool's gold or a harbinger of further success. Here's why I'm buying Finley ...

Jermichael Finley is most certainly for real, and not just because I'm a big fan of attaching random letters to repurpose common first names.

Let's start with the obvious: At 6-foot-5 and 247 pounds, his combination of size, downfield speed and athleticism makes Finley the kind of matchup nightmare that everyone but Mike Martz dreams about lining up at tight end. At just 22 years old (and after having left college a year early), Finley is still growing as a player and learning.

Of course, that's not to discount what he already accomplished last year. Things got off to a relatively slow start before he missed three games with a left knee sprain. Upon his return, however, Finley immediately stepped in as a central figure in the Green Bay passing game. From Week 11 on, he was the second-most targeted Packer receiver - trailing Greg Jennings by just two - and caught eight more passes than anyone else on the team. The fact that Finley only led the team in targets in a game three times all season further shows the consistency with which he got looks from Aaron Rodgers.

Over that same seven-week stretch, six tight ends around the league were targeted more than Finley, but only Jason Witten (45) and Tony Gonzalez (39) collected more catches than his 38. That's an average of a little more than five receptions a game, a rate that would produce about 87 over a full season. Only Witten and Dallas Clark topped that total at tight end in 2009. (And no one approached my aptitude for alliteration.)

In the Packers' playoff loss, Jerm (we're tight) turned all six of his catches into first downs and took three for more than 20 yards. That's just one game but an important one that at least offers a glimpse at his value to his quarterback and big-play potential.

The one thing that might limit him in non-PPR formats is Green Bay's ability to spread the ball around in the passing game. Five different Packers fell in the range of four to six touchdown catches last season. Whereas Donald Driver is nearing the end (and watched his opportunities decrease as Finley emerged), James Jones and Jordy Nelson are young guys heading in the opposite direction. Still, Finley came up with five scores last year - including four in the final five games - and Donald Lee found the end zone five times as the primary tight end in 2008. It shouldn't take much for Finley to settle into the seven-touchdown area (with clear upside beyond that) over a full season, and we can't ask much more than that from a fantasy tight end.

Finally, the Packers can and will throw. In Rodgers' two seasons, they've tied for ninth and 10^th in the league in pass attempts. That better-than-average rate was actually down from the first and sixth rankings of coach Mike McCarthy's first two seasons.

Roll it all together, and Jermichael Finley should be pushing jer top five at tight end for 2010.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Way-too-early mock-draft lessons

mattschauf — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 05:30:00 GMT

I have to admit, I think it's kind of silly to be doing fantasy football mock drafts at this point in the year.

The draft hasn't happened. Free agency has yet to open. Chad Ochocinco still has the same last name. No Jaguars have been arrested.

You get the point. It's really early to get any real sense of how things will go in 2010 fantasy drafts.

That said, drafting is fun. I'd do it every day if it didn't result in angry glares from my wife and cut into the time available for reruns of Throwdown with Bobby Flay. So when someone asks me to join their mock draft -- as Razzball's Chet Gresham did this week -- I can see no reason to decline.

Despite my belief that you can't draw too many conclusions from a football mock in February, you can still learn a bit about your own feelings on certain players and how others are reacting to the just-completed season.

The 12-team Razzball mock is running slow style, giving each owner 8 hours to pick, but we're already four spots into the sixth round after starting on Monday night. Scoring follows ESPN's standard format, with no point per reception and 4-point touchdown passes. I wound up with the No. 1 pick, and here are some of the things I've taught myself so far:

Top pick? No thanks

Just like every year, I don't particularly like having the first pick. There's just not as clear a top shelf of one, two or three running backs as we've seen in the past. Of course, once the first round is over, it's actually not such a bad spot. Twelve wideouts caught at least nine touchdown passes last season, while eight compiled 1,200 yards or more. Seven quarterbacks threw for at least 28 touchdowns -- only the second time that happened in the 2000s. Not only is talent spread around at running back, but there's value hanging around at other positions, too.

I wound up going for Maurice Jones-Drew in the top slot, ahead of Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. Jones-Drew outrushed Peterson last year on both a total-yards and per-carry basis behind a worse line and with much less of a pass offense to distract defenders. Johnson is coming off an unmistakably great 2009, but we all know he can't and won't get 350 carries a year. I know the "curse" doesn't kick in until 370, but I can't help wondering if Johnson's '09 workload will catch up to him in 2010.

I won't tell you you're wrong for favoring the 2,000-yard man, but I feel safer with Jones-Drew, who has averaged 13.5 touchdowns in his four seasons despite spending just one as a starter. I also expect Jacksonville's line to get stronger with better health at guard and more experience and time together for the young guys (such as the 2009 rookie tackles) and the group as a whole.

Who you're drafting with matters

Last year I was often among the first drafters to grab a quarterback, favoring Tom Brady in the second or third round and not being scared to grab Drew Brees or Peyton Manning in the first four rounds.

It didn't take too many "expert" drafts before I realized that passers tend to hang around longer among industry folks. That certainly wasn't the case with this group, though, as the first five quarterbacks disappeared before my second pick. Is this a trend based on the big passing numbers of last season or a quirk of this particular draft group?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few quarterbacks go off the board a bit earlier this year, but I certainly think this example will prove an anomaly. I don't know if folks got caught up in a position run or what, but five QBs in the first 23 picks is a freakishly high percentage. I couldn't help but wonder how many teams Steve Spurrier was running.

I was not about to get caught in that early run, but the drop in dependability at the position I saw after Donovan McNabb led me to draft him at the top of Round 5, at least a round or two (maybe three) earlier than I think he'll be available this summer.

I really like Miles Austin

Obviously the lack of PPR scoring devalues wideouts, but the fact that only four were picked in the same span that saw five quarterbacks go indicates to me that other owners were miscalculating.

Just like most fantasy leagues, this draft calls for a lineup that includes three wide receivers, with two running backs and no flex. I thought about Brandon Jacobs at the 24-25 turn, but there was no way I could pass up Austin and Randy Moss as the fifth and sixth wideouts off the board, knowing both would be long gone by my next pick.

Don't tell my wife, but if Austin played for anyone other than Dallas (OK, and the Giants and Washington), I might be in love with him. He was absolutely awesome from Week 5 on, grabbing 76 passes for 1,239 yards and 10 touchdowns in those 12 games. He tied for fourth in the league in touchdown receptions for the season despite not starting for the first four weeks. He has good hands, running back legs and a good quarterback who will now actually have an off-season to work with Austin as his No. 1. I think he has a solid chance of finishing 2010 as the top-scoring fantasy wideout.

Oh yeah, and Moss is Moss. He was hurt for pretty much all of 2009, playing in a passing game that often left observers wondering what was wrong and did just enough to have folks question his effort. In the end, all he did was tie for the league touchdown lead and compile 1,264 yards receiving. Moss and Brady should both be in better physical shape this time around, and the former has scored no fewer than 11 touchdowns in a season as a Patriot.

Running backs will be there

I have to be honest, I started to worry when the rushers started to go after my two-receiver turn. Did I make the right call? Then the draft got back to me at slot 48, and Jacobs remained on the board. I had no trouble grabbing the guy I'd have been happy with two rounds earlier.

Jacobs had a rough 2009, but he has since conceded that he played through an early injury that he probably would have been better off resting. That followed consecutive years of 5 yards per carry, and he has reached seven rushing scores three times. Two of those seasons saw him garner fewer than 100 carries.

Split the difference between his 2009 and 2008, and Jacobs would bring 10 scores. I'll certainly take that from a No. 2 back, with plenty of rounds left in which to draft some insurance. Ahmad Bradshaw certainly figures to split the load, but Jacobs has never taken more than 224 handoffs in a season (last year) anyway.

We'll see how the rest of this thing plays out and if any of it looks anything like future mocks. Whatever happens, though, I'll enjoy it.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Things to keep an eye on this spring

john.baker — Tue, 09 Feb 2010 00:24:00 GMT

Now that the pros have finished up a “Who Dat” passion play worthy of Shakespearean longevity, it’s time to get back to the business of college football – or more pointedly, the business of college football in the spring.

That’s right, my friends, despite the real sense that Alabama just won the national title only weeks ago, spring practices have been scheduled (well, most of them anyway), recruiting classes are in the barn, early enrollees are on campus and the snow will be off the ground at some point on the East Coast.

Here on the West Coast, the sun is out and there’s something that resembles warmth by midday. However, all thoughts turn to the long run through the spring and of the decisions that will be made before the summer.

With that in mind, let’s look at some issues I’m tracking heading toward the summer months and then into the fall.

Who plays quarterback for the Golden Domers?

Brian Kelly says “to heck” with the idea of ball control at Notre Dame and assured the Irish faithful that if scoring in a few plays happens regularly, then the defense will just have to deal with it. Bold words, my fine friend, but with quarterback Jimmy Clausen gone, one wonders who will pull the trigger on this offense. As Kelly heads into the spring, he must make order out of quarterback chaos. His likely starter for 2010, Dayne Crist is rehabbing a torn ACL, leaving the spring snaps to a bevy of youngsters, including Tommy Rees (early enrollee), walk-on Nate Montana and receiver-turned-quarterback-because-it-is-an-emergency, John Goodman. There are a couple other less heralded names on the roster, but if someone – anyone – were to step up and take command of this offense while Crist is on the mend, we could have a dogfight heading into the fall. Despite Kelly’s best Mouse Davis impersonation, the Irish figure to be young at quarterback and very likely a team that relies on the running game a lot to set up play-action through the air. This team needs to find a quarterback that can be effective and with so many unknowns among the current candidates, a surprise isn’t all that hard to imagine.

Who leads the Nebraska offense?

While Zac Lee returns, the Cornhuskers are built to win – and win big – now. Lee was too inconsistent in 2009 and that has opened the door for a big-time quarterback dual this spring with Cody Green and Kody Spano getting some run. A fourth name, redshirt frosh Taylor Martinez could also be a “left field” candidate. The Cornhuskers have a defense that, while minus a huge cog in Suh, has come back from the defensive abyss to be a tough out in most games. The offense has weapons, but the quarterback simply must produce on a more consistent basis. In my mind, this is one of the more intriguing battles this spring because it is apparent that while Lee would seem to be the frontrunner, the Nebraska coaching staff is looking for more.

Will someone run it at Texas?

It’s hard to fathom the dearth of a successful running game at Texas the last few years – Texas, a place that seemed to churn out 1,200-yard backs by the bushel for decades. But with the ascendency of Colt McCoy and the passing game, the running game has been a piecemeal conglomeration of “maybes,” “possibilities,” “flashes,” and “should haves” for far too long. It would take too long to list all the names that will be vying for a lead role as a rusher, but with youngster Garrett Gilbert poised to take over for McCoy, it stands to reason the Longhorns will want to run the ball much more successfully in 2010. Keep an eye on the spring work to see if someone separates themselves. Of course, separating and then staying healthy are too different cups of tea. Still, Texas needs to find a runner it can get 15 to 20 touches a game out of successfully. If they do, fantasy players will have another option in 2010.

Quarterback battle looming in Pittsburgh:

With Bill Stull now gone, the Panthers must find someone to complete throws to Jonathan Baldwin and help take the pressure off uber-productive running back Dion Lewis. Lining up this spring will be Tino Sunseri and Pat Bostick. Bostick was a starter in 2007, but was redshirted in 2009 when Sunseri snagged the backup spot. So, both have some experience to draw upon and if one can lock down the job, they will have some offensive weapons that will help them be productive.

Love affair with Anderson dwindling:

My undying affection for Louisville running back Victor Anderson is well-documented and as we head into the spring, I’m going to walk face first into that heartache again. New coach Charlie Strong must see if he can get some production out of his running game after Anderson struggled with injury and production last year. This spring will give us a feel for who he favors as Anderson and Darius Ashley vie for the starter’s carries. This shapes up as a very spirited competition and if there’s a clear winner – whoever it is – that running back could be a very solid fantasy option in the Big East in 2010.

Will it be Marve-lous?

One-time Miami starting quarterback Robert Marve could be an interesting fit for a Purdue offense that must replace its quarterback. The Boilermakers begin spring practice in late March and if the offense is to keep its recent tone, a quarterback who can make throws sideline to sideline will be needed. Marve will have to beat off the challenges of several other youngsters, but he’s certainly a guy with big-time game experience. If he wins it decisively, he could be an interesting fantasy quarterback option.

Is there a replacement for Spiller?

Clemson’s big-play threat is gone – hail C.J. Spiller. Now the Tigers and coach Dabo Swinney have the unenviable task of finding out how the other half lives. This spring the Tigers will need to find out if they have another back they can roll out 15 to 20 times a game. To that end, keep an eye on Jamie Harper and Andre Ellington as they are the most prominent of the returning backs that seem poised to make a run at the starting spot.

Pac-10 quarterback battles:

At Arizona State, it’s Michigan transfer Steven Threet against Brock Osweiler and Samson Szakaczy in new OC Noel Mazzone’s spread attack. At California, the perpetually-embattled and underachieving Kevin Riley will be in a battle with Brock Mansion and Beau Sweeney to find something that resembles consistency to help stud running back Shane Vereen; Oregon State must replace Sean Canfield with either Virginia Transfer Peter Lalich or sophomore Ryan Katz. But wait, there’s more. One-time starter Lyle Moevao has had OSU petition the NCAA for a sixth year of eligibility. Stay tuned on that one, folks; and Washington State must, as always try to find a decent quarterback who can stay relatively healthy for any length of time. You have to believe in miracles.

Cameron Newton who?

Auburn loses a ton of its offense with quarterback Chris Todd and running back Ben Tate out the door, but the quarterback savior, they hope, is already on campus in the person of JC transfer Cameron Newton. He’s already enrolled and should get first crack at the job in the spring. Question is, can he throw the ball effectively and carry a larger portion of the offensive burden than did Todd? He’s one to watch as the spring unfolds.

Speaking of SEC quarterbacks:

Nice to see Tim Tebow tackle his mom in the Super Bowl commercial, but now we have to ask if his anointed successor, John Brantley, is capable of tackling even a slight Tebow-like load in this offense. Brantley is much more of a classic big-armed passer, so the rushing part of Tebow’s game won’t translate to Brantley. What we’re looking for this spring is not only Brantley’s ability to run the offense, but the offense’s ability to find some receivers that can snag 50 to 60 catches and get into the end zone semi-frequently. For Florida, offensive development post-Tebow will be a combination of quarterback and wide receivers stepping forward. Keep an eye on this situation as spring starts.

Speaking even more of quarterbacks:

Brigham Young has been a stable influence on the fantasy football scene, but with Max Hall gone, the Cougars will need to find an arm that will keep the tradition alive. This should be one heckuva battle in the spring between Riley Nelson, James Lark and already-on-campus freshman Jake Heaps. The Cougars are not known for a quarterback-by-committee approach, so expect a winner who will get some run early in the season. As usual, a quarterback at BYU that wins the job has the potential of throwing for a lot of yards and touchdowns over the course of the season. Extra: The Cougars, who value the receiving contributions of their tight ends perhaps more than any other program, will need to replace a pair of good ones in Dennis Pitta and Andrew George. If they find one in the spring, expect pretty good numbers this fall.

Wide receivers needed at USC:

With Damian Williams off to the pro, the development of young quarterback Matt Barkley will depend on the Trojans ability not only run the ball successfully, but also to find a couple dependable receivers to make plays for him. The spring will be a good time to see if David Ausberry, a big 6-4, 225-pounder can be the kind of receiver that Barkley goes to when he needs a big catch. If not, will it be Ronald Johnson, Brice Butler, Brandon Carswell, Travon Patterson or even De’Von Flournoy? Point is, in 2009, after Williams there was a HUGE dropoff to the no. 2 receiving spot. For Barkley to continue to flourish, and to help fantasy owners, two receivers need to step forward to be contributors. Who those two will be will start playing out in the spring.

A Football Dude Tries to Relearn Baseball

mattschauf — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 21:11:00 GMT

Wanna feel inadequate? Try dating a bisexual porn star.

I don't speak from experience there. I just feel pretty safe in the assumption.

My recent brush with inadequacy, however, came via my first fantasy baseball draft of the year.

It wasn't so long ago that I fancied myself a pretty solid fantasy baseball player, always well prepared at draft time and nearly always contending for a title. The devotion of more time to carrying the football content around these parts over the past couple of years, however, plus running FantasySportsBusiness.com, helping to get RapidDraft fantasy football off the ground, working a day job until 2009 ... oh yeah, and seeing my family every once in a while -- let's just say it left me with a bit less time to focus on baseball the past couple of years.

I managed to draft a good enough team in my four-keeper Yahoo! league in 2008 to lock down second place despite an inactive second half, but at some point in 2009, I became that jerk who couldn't even keep his lineup free of "DL" tags. Naturally, then, as we headed to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association conference in Las Vegas last week, I told my boss I'd have no trouble taking the lead on selecting Team WFG in the "experts" draft.

A January baseball draft is bound to present some pitfalls, but things get even tougher when you draft with a group of bright fantasy folks. This group included ...

John Zaleski of Fantasy Factor and Charlie Wiegert of Fanball -- who've been playing fantasy for almost as long as I've been alive and been running fantasy sports companies since before I hit middle school

Tim Heaney -- who's younger than I am but a lead baseball voice for KFFL and the returning champ in this league

Pierre Becquey -- who oversees ESPN's fantasy writing staff and is Canadian, thus probably much more ready to fight at any moment than I am

Scott Swanay of Fantasy Sherpa -- who runs more stat algorithms than there are Molina brothers

Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ -- Let's just say that when one of your buddies drafts Troy Glaus at this point, you quickly chime in with something like "every team needs a DH who can give you 12 games" or "maybe you can draft him a replacement hip next round." When Ron Shandler plucked Glaus in Round 20, though, all I could think was, "Crap, Glaus must be a sleeper this year."

I did, of course, take some time for preparation heading into this thing. I finally activated the Baseball Prospectus subscription that my brother had gifted me nearly a year before and even read some of the articles. I checked out the average draft position and cheatsheet material over at MockDraftCentral.com. I paid closer attention when posting baseball articles by our own pair of Brads and read some of Grey's brain droppings at Razzball.com.

Really, though, after more than a season and a half on not closely following baseball, I headed into the draft last Monday night with a five-point plan:

1. Don't make any picks that draw blatant laughter. Basically, I was hoping not to call out the name of any guy who had just announced his retirement or undergone Tommy John surgery.

2. Nab a few Expos late. Those guys are always underrated.

3. Don't stick only to familiar names. There were about four more Escobars and seven more Cabreras called than I knew existed, so it was clear that a 2003 all-star team wouldn't cut it - despite my best efforts to assemble one, which I'll get to in a minute.

4. Don't ignore players just because they've failed me in the past. This has been one of my bigger problems in fantasy baseball: drafting players a year before their true breakout and then steering clear of them at the start of said breakout season. Rickie Weeks has burned me in the past, but I thought he was worth a shot in Round 12 after he did some good things in a truncated 2009 (at least, according to the magazine in front of me).

5. Don't jump on Nolan Ryan too early. Sure, he'll help me in strikeouts, but at the cost of my ERA and WHIP?

As the first round of this 14-team draft worked toward me at Pick 13, I hoped that Ryan Braun would last. One of the few young players with whom I'm really familiar (having acquired him for my sinking ship of a keeper team last year), Braun's cross-category value is obvious. Not surprisingly, he didn't get to me, but I was pleased to land Prince Fielder after a couple of owners ahead of me took Joe Mauer and Roy Halladay. The Halladay pick carried the bonus of making me look like at least the second-least prepared owner in the group.

It turned out that none of my fears were truly realized. Josh Hamilton brings risk but was worth a shot in Round 6 (72^nd overall), at least I'm guessing by the lack of snickers when I picked him. Adam Wainwright might be coming off a career year, or he might have become the ace last year that folks have projected him to be. Either way, he was a decent No. 1 starter for my team at No. 69.

In the eighth round, I'm not sure if I selected a Canadian Olympic figure skater or some dude who failed as a kicker for three different teams last year. Either way, though, the leg drive of Elvis Andrus should get me some steals, right?

I did pick up Vladimir Guerrero (Round 10, Pick 128), Carlos Zambrano (12, 156) and Chipper Jones (15, 209) to make myself feel comfortable, but none was a big risk in double-digit rounds and each was at least good at some point. I even drafted a couple of young upside guys (Rockies OF Dexter Fowler and Washington RP Drew Storen), because I can't see winning a league like this without hitting on at least one or two values in that area. This is, after all, a 14-team setup with 23-man lineups -- and the leaguemates named above are likely to jump on the in-season breakouts before I even know which team they play for.

I'd be lying, of course, if I said I knew anything about Fowler or Storen before last Monday.

We still have three more rounds to finish up via e-mail, but I'm feeling OK about the team I'm putting together. Maybe that's because no one laughed out loud as I picked on draft night. Maybe it's because my roster finished way ahead in player names called out after I'd already grabbed them. Maybe it's because I just don't know any better.

The season will tell if this group can compete with a bunch of "experts," but at the very least, it feels nice to reconnect with baseball. Now, when should I take Randy Johnson?

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com.

The roster so far ...

Pos.	Player	Rd-Ov. Pick
C	Brian McCann	3--41
C	Dioner Navarro	25--349
1B	Prince Fielder	1--13
2B	Rickie Weeks	11--153
3B	David Wright	2--16
SS	Elvis Andrus	8--100
CI	Chipper Jones	15--209
MI	Jhonny Peralta	13--181
OF	Ichiro	4--44
OF	Josh Hamilton	6--72
OF	Dexter Fowler	17--237
OF	J.D. Drew	20--268
OF	Rick Ankiel	24--324
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	10--128
P	Adam Wainwright	5--69
P	Matt Garza	7--97
P	Carlos Zambrano	12--156
P	Rick Porcello	14--184
P	Scott Feldman	21--293
P	Francisco Rodriguez	9--125
P	Octavio Dotel	16--212
P	Fernando Rodney	18--240
BN	Nick Johnson	19--265
BN	Chris Young	22--296
BN	Marlon Byrd	23--321
BN	Drew Storen	26--352
BN
BN
BN

Seeing 2010 through the performances of 2009

john.baker — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 02:53:00 GMT

Winter is continuing to pound away at many parts of the country as we welcome February, but with all-star games being played and the hint of spring practice starting to whisper its promise of optimism on the wind, let’s take a look back.

It’s never too late to learn something from 2009 that will benefit fantasy owners in 2010.

As always, there are vagaries that can’t be seen right now, but we’ll leave that to the fates and try to divine something useful from the 2009 season. The beauty is, of course, that each season, despite many fantasy contributors coming back, remains at the mercy of the player’s opportunities within an offense that may suffer subtle changes through some changing personnel, or major changes due to wholesale coaching moves.

What was born in 2009 may not grow as we’d all like in 2010. That’s the risk we all take in this crazy game and it’s what makes it great.

That being said, however, we’ll take a stab at eyeballing the 2010 season through the lens of 2009 performances.

So, what did we learn in 2009?

We learned that in the college game, dual-threat quarterbacks can rock your stat line. Sure, the big guy standing in the pocked can be a huge advantage, particularly if his name is Case Keenum (so glad you’re coming back, Case), but the real equalizer in the college fantasy game is the quarterback who can run it or pass it with equal effectiveness.

Case in point: in all four of the leagues I played in, each with a slightly different format, the dual-threat quarterbacks held six of the next seven spots after Keenum (the runaway stat point winner in each format). So, after Keenum’s aerial circus, the quarterbacks who stood out from a fantasy points earned perspective were: Joe Webb (UAB), Colin Kaepernick (Nevada), Dan LeFevour (Central Michigan), Jerrod Johnson (Texas A&M), Dwight Dasher (Middle Tennessee), Kellen Moore (Boise State) and Tim Tebow (Florida). The only pure passer in that list is Moore. Even Johnson rushed for more than 400 yards and eight scores (36 touchdowns total).

The point is this, in the pro fantasy games you’re at the mercy of the passing portion of the game. In the college game, there are more ways for a quarterback to contribute to your point total and that broadens the paths you can take in selecting a quarterback. Of this group, Kaepernick, Johnson, Dasher and Moore (along with Keenum) return in 2010.

I’m not saying you can’t love Ryan Mallett or Russell Wilson or whatever gunslinger you favor, I’m saying that it’s nice to have a guy who can do it with his arm or his legs. In the college game, you can have your cake and eat it, too.

Three dual threat quarterbacks to keep in your hip pocket for 2010 – Jake Locker (Washington), Terrelle Pryor (Ohio State), Ricky Dobbs (Navy).

We learned that the Pac-10, long touted the conference of quarterbacks, is primed to be a running back haven for the next few years – possibly.

Few would have ever thought that Stanford running back Toby Gerhart would rush for 1,800 yards and make a serious run at the Heisman, but that’s what happened (though you’ll recall I was touting him in the summer for a huge year). And he wasn’t alone in the Pac-10 by any means and 2010 could be even better.

Oregon’s Jacquizz Rodgers and Oregon’s LaMichael James will lead a conference that has become one to watch for fantasy-worthy running backs. Both should continue to run and catch the ball, the dream of all fantasy owners. Both figure to be key ingredients in each program’s offense – again.

But I’m going to give you a couple more names to keep up your sleeve in 2010. Here are some sneaky-good prospects in the Pac-10:

Chris Polk (Washington) – Polk actually rushed for 1,100 yards for the Huskies in year one of the Steve Sarkisian era – not bad for a freshman. Polk will benefit from the experience and the return of quarterback Jake Locker and I’d be shocked if he didn’t nearly double his total of five touchdowns in 2010.

Shane Vereen (California) – Even though he played second fiddle to Jahvid Best for most of the season, Vereen rushed for nearly 1,000 yards and scored 12 times on the ground. After Best was hurt, Vereen rattled off four straight 100-yard games and scored six times in that span. This guy is the real deal and there are whispers that he’s better than Best right now – and you remember how highly ranked Best was in fantasy circles when 2009 dawned. I’m just saying.

Nic Grigsby (Arizona) – Yes, he can’t seem to stay healthy, but when he does, he’s the truth, baby. Grigsby had only 79 carries, but tallied more than 500 yards and five scores in limited work. Yes, he’ll have to battle Keola Antolin for carries again, but it seems that whenever Grigsby is healthy, he’s the guy. After so much physical struggle, he’s due for a healthy year.

Others who could have impact: Johnathan Franklin (UCLA) – An up-and-down freshman season, but one to watch. Allan Bradford (USC) – CJ Gable may be coming back, but my money’s on this guy taking the lion’s share of carries.

We learned that often the best fantasy receivers are veteran receivers. When looking down the list of the top fantasy receivers, one thing jumps out at me – how many of them are headed to the NFL this season and how many are upperclassmen.

Let’s see, Freddie Barnes, Golden Tate, Danario Alexander, Dexter McCluster, Dezmon Briscoe, Jordan Shipley and Antonio Brown. Seven of the top wide receivers in the league formats I played in are graduated or off to the NFL a season early.

The only underclassmen to sneak into that mix was Hawaii’s Greg Salas who had 103 catches, 1,500 yards and double-digit scores for the Warriors. Other guys in the top spots are Emmanuel Sanders, Ryan Broyles and Kerry Meiers – all gone for 2010.

It would seem that some seasoning is a nice thing for wide receivers to have, not to mention a serviceable quarterback throwing the ball. When you look at the names on this list, you see most of them had quarterbacks who were, at the very least, decent – many had very good quarterbacks with whom they’d built a decent relationship over some length of time.

With all but Salas gone in the top 12, who might be the big guns in 2010? Look for Randall Cobb (Kentucky), Eric Page (Toledo), Austin Pettis and Titus Young (Boise State), James Cleveland (Houston) and James Rodgers (Oregon State).

Pettis and Young always bother me because Kellen Moore will throw to the towel boy if he’s open. I’m sure the blue turf crowd loves that Moore is an equal opportunity passer, targeting just about anyone with a touchdown throw, but for fantasy purposes it would be great if he really zeroed in on these guys more this season.

Cleveland was a fantastic story in 2009 and with Keenum back, it’s easy to see him being a top-5 fantasy wide receiver come draft day.

We learned that there are a lot of good freshmen running backs around. Pittsburgh’s Dion Lewis, Virginia Tech’s Ryan Williams, Oregon’s LaMichael James, Temple’s Bernard Pierce, Washington’s Chris Polk, Iowa’s Adam Robinson, Texas A&M’s Michael Christine, Indiana’s Darius Willis and Vanderbilt’s Warren Norman.

The question is which of these guys will improve their second year, hold onto their job or avoid injury? And which will take a big step forward in 2010?

Tech’s Williams will have a battle on his hands with Donald Evans and some other talented backs on the scene – he’s my candidate to have the biggest letdown in 2010. I also question whether Temple can bring enough offense outside of Pierce to keep defenses honest in 2010. He’s my other candidate to have a sophomore slump.

I’ve already lauded Polk as a guy who is in position to have a big season at Washington and I like Robinson at Iowa and Willis at Indiana to take that next step toward fantasy contributions on a weekly basis.

We learned that one similarity with the pro fantasy game is that tight ends that contribute usable numbers weekly are golden – and just as rare as gold.

In my leagues, the same three names were at the top of the tight end heap – Dennis Morris (La. Tech), Dennis Pitta (BYU) and Dorin Dickerson (Pittsburgh). After those three, there was at the very least, a 25-point gap to the next group of tight ends – Garrett Graham (Wisconsin), Ed Dickson (Oregon), Jason Harmon (Florida Atlantic), Aaron Hernandez (Florida) and Cody Slate (Marshall) – and after that it fell off quickly and precipitously.

Here’s my point and it was hammered home in 2009 – a quality tight end for college fantasy play is a tremendous advantage for you to have. If you’re willing to snag one early in the draft and ignore the wisecracks of your opponents, you may have snagged a head start to winning it all.

In three of my four drafts, I took Pitta in the third or fourth round each time, depending on which I was in the snake. In my fourth, I took Dickson in the fifth round. And seriously, someone made a comment each time about it being too early for a tight end. The thing about tight ends is can they come close to some level of consistency week to week. In my league formats, Morris, Pitta and Dickerson were the only tight ends to score in double figures five times during the season and each had at least one more game with eight or more points.

When your best tight ends average 8.0 to 9.0 points a game in a basic fantasy format, you better make sure you find a guy early who’s going to take you over that amount regularly and have the ability to get you a couple big games along the way – because tight ends will usually offer up an O-fer or two along the way.

As an example, Morris had high point games of 20 and 31 points; Pitta 20 and 23 points; Dickerson 25 and a pair of 17-pointers.

Additionally, the concept of veterans at the position seems to be even more important than at wide receiver. Morris, Pitta, Dickerson, Graham, Dickson, Harmon, Hernandez and Slate are all seniors or have entered the NFL draft – as are Jesse Rack (Buffalo) and Michael Palmer (Clemson). It’s not until we get down to North Carolina State’s George Bryan and all 65 of his points that we have a guy who’s slated to come back.

Given that seeming lack of tight end firepower coming back, here are three guys to take a long look at in 2010 and hope they catch fire and become fantasy difference-makers for you: Bryan (NC State), Jeffrey Anderson (UAB), Joe Halahuni (Oregon State).

Viking Fans: Now You Know

pathegewald — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 20:30:00 GMT

Growing up in Wisconsin and being a die-hard Green Bay Packer fan, it would be safe to assume that I watched Sunday’s NFC Championship Game with mixed emotions. "Our guy" Brett Favre was out there trying to get the much-hated Minnesota Vikings back into the Super Bowl after years of close calls. Ever since their nasty public "divorce", the debate surrounding "Favre or the Packers" has raged on. For two football seasons now! I’ve always been on the side of the organization, but that did not stop a part of me from wanting to see the old man do it just one more time as the game came to a close.

Last Sunday night, Brett Favre took a ferocious beating and stood strong in the face of a borderline "Chicken $hit" assault by the Saints on his 40 year old body. In typical Brett Favre fashion, a physical beating would most certainly not deter him from being Brett Favre. Much like two seasons ago in his last game as a Packer, he made the only throw that he couldn’t make and threw an interception that would eventually seal his team’s fate. And now all of those purple #4 shirt wearing Vikings fans know exactly what it is that we Packer fans went through for years.

You see, loving Brett Favre is like loving an old care-free uncle. He’s great to have around. He can make your kitchen come alive with laughter, and sometimes you wonder how come you don’t spend more time with him because of his amazing insight on life. But once it's said and done and the old man has gone home, you realize that your whiskey supply is destroyed, there are pee stains on your wife’s best bathroom rug, and you know it will be six weeks before you get the funky smell out of your couch. Vikings fans, you can take comfort in the fact that (so far) you have only had "Uncle Brett" staying with you for a weekend. We Packer Backers had him for an entire summer! And trust me when I say that we were ready for another member of the family to take their turn with him.

Aaron Rodgers would have tucked that ball and ran for five yards, or he would have thrown the ball to the receiver in the flats and took those five yards and lived to fight another day. Brett Favre would never do that. Can Aaron Rodgers make the plays that Favre made to even get his team in that position in the first place? The jury is still out on that one, but he is 15 years younger and is inherently better at taking care of the football and taking fewer risks. And as a Packer fan, I can live with that. That is not to say that my heart didn’t break when Favre made that throw because it did.

In closing, let me say to Favre's loyal followers; how can you possibly blame the organization for ushering out an old warrior who was still able break your heart while playing on a team you’ve spent your entire life hating? And to the true Vikings fans out there, I have five words for you. Twelve men in the huddle. You had the quarterback and the talent to win it all; you simply don’t have the coach and the organization to win it all. And now that organization has awarded that coach with a contract extension and you know that it's probably all going to end badly. I predict that you will have to endure two or three horrible seasons before they root him out of there.

So to Brett I say.....happy off-season to you great warrior. You never fail to turn an NFL playoff game into a life-changing experience, and this past effort was one for the ages. Thank you for some of the most amazing football we have ever seen. Thank you for giving the Viking faithful a taste of what it takes to love you. Thank you for being a quarterback that our game RapidDraft can embrace. And mostly, thank you for just being yourself and letting the rest of us decide how much we can take. Let the speculation begin!

NFL Picks-Championship Round

Brian Saxe — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 18:28:00 GMT

The Divisional Round was not kind to me as I went 1-3 making me 3-5 for the Playoffs. I’ll need all three games to break .500 for both the Regular Season and Playoffs.

New York Jets (9-7) @ (-9) Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

It’s hard to believe the Jets are still in it. They remind me of the 2006 Bears team that won games with defense and fluke plays. The Jets seemed to feed off of every mistake the Chargers made, and Norv Turner always makes a few. They were also pretty lucky that one of the best kickers in the league decided to take the day off.

I definitely like Indy in this game but it’s hard to give 9 points when going against a very good defense like the Jets have. If the Jets can put some points, and by some I mean at least a touchdown, then they should be able to keep the game close.

Minnesota Vikings (12-4) @ (-4) New Orleans Saints (13-3)

The Vikings offense matches up very well with the Saints defense. They should finally be able to run the ball well and control the clock. If they run well then Darren Sharper won’t be able to sit back and wait for a mistake and he will end up getting burned for a long play at some point. It’s also unrealistic to wait for Favre’s mistake. They used to say he’ll give you a couple passes per game that should be picked off, but he just isn’t doing that this year.

If the Saints want to win they will have to score often, and the key to scoring is to protect Brees. If he has time he will pick apart the Vikings defense because they have a lot of favorable match ups against the linebackers and secondary of the Vikings, if he doesn’t have time, and I don’t think he will, the Vikings will win.

Bits and pieces on the CFB landscape

john.baker — Sun, 24 Jan 2010 01:09:00 GMT

Well, that was quite a bowl season wasn’t it? In what can only be called a “shocking development,” or, if you’re my wife, a “disgusting” development, I intentionally watched an extended amount of all 34 bowl games this season.

Sure, it’s was big sacrifice – no lawn work, no handyman activities, no “honey do” list – but I was willing to "fall on the grenade" to see what it felt like to have some knowledge of every game played this bowl season.

Now it’s done and the off-season, such as it may be these days, is upon us. After taking a bit of a break to enjoy some vacation time and bask in the glow of a grey, rainy Oregon winter, I’ve returned.

Let’s take a look at some of the issues that have popped up between the end of the bowl season and this point right here. Ready? Let’s see what’s happening.

In the fast Lane…again:

The arrival of Lane Kiffin at USC should be cause for joy, excitement and hosannas on high – if you’re Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Arizona and the rest of the Pac-10.

Let’s face it, Kiffin has a coaching pedigree (Thanks, Monte) and must be one helluva interview, but there appears little else to recommend this guy as a difference-maker at any level. If you look at it honestly, the best thing he’s ever done is get a job on Pete Carroll’s USC staff and ride that wave for all it was worth. Kiffin was a disaster, even by Oakland Raider standards, in the pro game, talked his way into the Tennessee head job, where he promptly pissed off his coaching brethren, tweaked nearly a half-dozen NCAA rules and erroneously accused some fellow coaches of recruiting improprieties. Then, he went 7-6 with the Vols in his only season before running back to SoCal.

If you’re the Ducks, Beavers, Huskies of Wildcats, you don’t hold this guy in awe and respect the way you did Pete Carroll. Truthfully, Kiffin is a huge (and I mean huge) question mark as a head coach right now and certainly no Pete Carroll at this point. USC will have its usual compliment of incredibly talented players on offense and defense, but that gap has been closed in the last three years, a development that was more than evident in 2009.

Kiffin will now be tasked with trying to get this program back up to the bar Carroll established, while fending off a conference that increasingly doesn’t fear the Trojans.

It was interesting to me that Steve Sarkisian’s name didn’t crop up more fervently in this coaching search, but perhaps that tells us more about what Sark knows about the possible NCAA sanctions against USC and potential at Washington.

Let’s face it, when your dominant resume item is as assistant coach under Pete Carroll during USC’s halcyon run in the mid-2000’s, you really don’t have much to recommend you to the job but the memories of successes past. His past two coaching stops have left his employers embarrassed, angry and less than satisfied with the product on the field.

Get used to that, my friends.

Healthy and back on the field:

Great to see that Boston College linebacker Mark Herzlich has completed treatment for Ewings Sarcoma and is back on the practice field leading off-season drills.

Herzlich was the Golden Eagles top defensive player heading into 2009, but discovery of the cancer ended his season before it began. His battle through the treatment and apparent recovery are a testament to his character, strength and modern medicine. He’s a guy that should be very motivated in 2010 and I like his chances to be an IDP tackling machine next season.

Oh, a sleeper gets away:

Looking through the 53 players who were given the OK by the NFL as early entrants to this year’s NFL draft, one name stopped me in my tracks.

One thing the bowl game orgy I experienced gave me a chance to do was get the old eyeballs on some guys who could be big-time for fantasy owners in 2010. One of those guys I’d targeted – and I believe mentioned in an earlier bowl game recap column – was SMU running back Shawnbrey McNeil. In the pass-happy offense of coach June Jones, McNeil had a pretty darn impressive season with nearly 1,200 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns, with a couple more through the air thrown in.

After watching him get more than 100 total yards and three touchdowns in the bowl game beat down of Nevada, I realized what a quality back this guy was and had been ready to quietly slip him into the sack as a “sleeper” for 2010. Now, that joy is gone as he heads to the NFL draft, where he is projected as a fourth or fifth rounder.

Truthfully, this one crushed me. I couldn’t wait to recommend him to fantasy owners this summer as a guy who was worthy of a draft choice. Now the NFL gets that opportunity. Too bad.

Luck of the Irish:

I had to kind of chuckle when I read a bit about new Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly asking his players to “buy in” to his program unconditionally – like that’s something different.

Look, every coach talks about the players “buying in” to the new program and the need to separate those who want to “buy in” from those who may want to simply “sell out.” I don’t begrudge Kelly running out on his Cincinnati team well before the bowl game or the usual Notre Dame coaching rhetoric that has emanated from the home of the golden dome since, but anyone who’s been around coaches – successful and otherwise – for any length of time realizes something pretty profound…it’s far easier to present the illusion that the players have bought in when you win.

Good players who are well coaches and in a scheme that plays to their strengths usually produces good results. With his quarterback and best receiver gone, as well as many other holes to fill and the mystique of the program in post-Christmas wrapping tatters, buying in is a nice off-season phrase to toss out, but the Irish need talent more than anything else.

Come the fall, coaching clichés will not be what determines the success of Brian Kelly’s start in South Bend – wins and losses will. That’s the only thing that will determine how extensive the “buy in” has been at Notre Dame.

Holy Unga, that’s good news:

Great to hear that BYU running back Harvey Unga decided to return for his senior season. With Max Hall heading out, 2010 could be a season of plenty for Unga and the running game and fantasy owners could reap the benefits.

Unga was a bit of a disappointment in 2009 after a huge 2008 campaign, but still became the first Cougar running back to go over 1,000 yards in consecutive seasons. Here’s betting that he’s going to be much better, much healthier and much more fantasy friendly in 2010 – and will make it three straight 1,000 yard seasons.

Here’s a quickie prediction for Unga in 2010 – 1,350 yards, 14 touchdowns. Hey, I’m just spit-balling here.

Things are Sonny at La. Tech:

Besides the Kiffin disaster brewing at USC, one of the more intriguing hires of the off-season (at least to me) is Sonny Dykes to Louisiana Tech. Dykes is the son of former Texas Tech coach Spike Dykes and comes to LT with a penchant for the spread offense.

A week into the job, Dykes is waffling on whether he’ll implement the spread attack at LTU, instead saying all the requisite things about analyzing the personnel before deciding on a mode of offensive attack. Louisiana Tech loses workhorse running back Daniel Porter, but returns quarterback Ross Jenkins (2,095-17-5) and a couple of nice receivers (Phillip Livas, Cruz Williams, etc.) and some other nice pieces.

It will be interesting to see what Dykes does and if he’ll go to battle with an offense he knows and the pieces that were in place in 2009 – or, like June Jones in 2008, put the offense in the hands of a freshman quarterback and let the learning begin?

Here’s a name to keep in mind in 2010 – freshman running back Tyrone Duplessis, a shifty, lightning quick back that spelled Porter and had three games with 65 or more yards. Just a hint for the future.

What next at Stanford:

While I loved Toby Gerhart this season and rode him to titles in two leagues, I wasn’t disappointed to see him head to the NFL. With his departure, however, things will change mightily for the Cardinal in 2010.

And with that, perhaps it’s a good time to remind everyone that Jim Harbaugh’s offense will now revolve around quarterback Andrew Luck in 2010. That should bode well for receivers Ryan Whalen and Chris Owosu, who showed flashes in 2009, but must be much more productive to offset the likely downturn in rushing production with Gerhart gone.

Stanford’s offense will be much different in 2010 and it will be interesting to see if Luck takes a big step forward. He showed some promising flashes of brilliance in 2009, but had the battering ram of a running game to take the pressure off. That luxury, to say the least, is gone.

Brown returns for more:

Over the first six weeks of the season, one of my most productive fantasy receivers was Vincent Brown of San Diego State. He was well over the 700 yard mark with six scores and plenty of catches in the Aztec’s new spread offensive set-up.

All was rosy and golden – then he got hurt and was out for the season. Well, with the announcement that he’s returning to SDSU, as well as quarterback Ryan Lindley, this offense could be one of those “out of the way” sleeper groups that makes big numbers from humble origins.

Don’t sleep on Brown in 2010 as surgery on his thumb was successful and he should be 100 percent this fall. It will be interesting to see how the fantasy landscape views Vincent Brown in the fall, but I’m just offering a heads-up now – don’t sleep on this guy this fall.

AFC Championship: Judging Fantasy Conditions for Jets Players

mattschauf — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 20:11:00 GMT

After taking yesterday to check out the fantasy conditions for the Colts players this weekend, it's time to flip the script and see what matching up against the Indy defense will mean for the prospects of the Jets' skill guys.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

vs. Quarterbacks

The Colts started the season much tougher on opposing passers than they finished. After none of the first eight was able to throw more than one touchdown pass against Indianapolis, six of the final eight enemy quarterbacks put up at least two.

That trend should be a bit unsettling, but there are several things within that stretch worth noting: First, only one of those six players attempted fewer than 40 passes (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Second, Fitzpatrick and David Garrard produced their three-touchdown outings within the final three weeks, when the Colts had already clinched. Even though Indy played nearly all of its starters in that one, it did so without arguably the two most significant defenders -- Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Finally, Mark Sanchez was one of just two (along with Joe Flacco) to not join that multi-touchdown group.

Sanchez didn't need to do much to help his team beat the Curtis Painter posse in Week 16, as he attempted the fewest passes of any starter against the Colts all year, but it's unlikely that his team will only call on him for 19 throws this time around.

Despite the weaker second half, facing the third-most pass attempts all season and allowing the third-most completions, the Colts still finished the season allowing the 13^th-fewest passing yards and tying for 10^th-fewest touchdown passes yielded.

For his part, Sanchez enjoyed just two multiple-touchdown games all season, compared with five in which he threw more than one interception.

Verdict: With Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre piloting the other three remaining teams, Mark Sanchez easily stands as the weakest fantasy play at his position this weekend.

vs. Running Backs

Although certainly far from dominating in run defense, Indianapolis hasn't been a pushover in that area this season. The Colts ranked middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed (17^th, 4.3) but tied for eighth-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs. That came despite seeing the seventh-most carries and giving up the seventh-most yards. This marked the third time in the past five years that Indy has allowed 10 or fewer total rushing scores.

Of course, the Colts' greatest weapon against opposing rushing attacks is its own scoring offense. Pressured to try to match Manning and Co. (or, more often, play from behind), opponents often have to run the ball less than they might like. Even the Jets only handed 16 times in the first half of the previous meeting. After Manning left following his first drive of the third quarter, however, New York soon climbed on top and finished with 39 carries.

It's tough to glean a whole lot from that matchup, unfortunately, as Indy weakside linebacker Clint Session and strong safety Melvin Bullitt joined Freeney and Mathis on the sideline for that contest. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene combined for 200 yards rushing then, but it's hard to imagine conditions lining up for anywhere near that output this time.

What we have found out over the past couple of weeks, though, is that Greene is a pretty dynamic runner and the likely lead back for the Jets in this one. The rookie garnered 44 carries to Jones' 29 over the past two games and averaged 6 yards, more than double the 2.6 that Jones contributed.

We also know that the Jets aren't set up well to take advantage of Indy's generosity to receiving backs. The Colts allowed the sixth-most receptions to running backs in the league this year and tied for second-most receiving touchdowns yielded to the position (though two came in the final three weeks). The Jets, meanwhile, completed 18 fewer passes to backs than any other team for the year. More than half of their 28 completions to runners went to Leon Washington, whose season ended in Week 7. Jones caught 10 passes during the regular season, and Greene's 4-yard reception at San Diego on Sunday was his first as a pro.

Verdict: Between Shonn Greene's performance the past two weeks and the Jets' commitment to the run, the rookie has to be considered at least among the top three fantasy backs in any format for the weekend. It comes down to scoring format, I think, between him and Reggie Bush at No. 2. Jones, on the other hand, will only offer value if he finds the end zone. That makes him pretty risky.

vs. Wide Receivers

The high number of receptions by running backs against the Colts can be attributed to the same factor that led to this defense allowing the league's most receptions by wideouts. Even though Indy changed head coaches and defensive coordinators this year, it's defensive philosophy remains one of allowing short passes while keeping opponents out of the end zone.

That's why enemy receivers caught 224 passes, tallied the seventh-most yards and managed to tie for just 17^th-most touchdown catches. Even that number (12) got inflated a bit by four wideout scores over the final three weeks.

As I mentioned earlier, with Peyton Manning due to play the whole way this time around, the Jets will probably have to throw the ball significantly more than the 19 attempts they logged in the first meeting. Before Week 16, only two quarterbacks attempted fewer than 30 throws against the Colts, and Marc Bulger and David Garrard each put it up at least 26 times.

Verdict: Jerricho Cotchery leads the Jets with nine receptions in the post-season and led the team with 57 catches during the regular season despite missing time and being limited at others by injury. He's a solid option in point-per-reception setups such as ours and could always sneak into the end zone. Braylon Edwards has only once caught more than three passes with Cotchery in the lineup, including just two receptions in each playoff game so far. He's OK down the line but not particularly attractive.

vs. Tight ends

Despite allowing so many catches by wideouts and backs, the Colts gave up just the sixth-fewest receptions to tight ends all year and only two touchdowns. Just two opposing tight ends caught as many as five passes against Indy (neither more than that), and just two reached 50 yards.

The Colts didn't face the world's strongest slate of opposing tight ends but were able to limit Vernon Davis (three receptions, 20 yards, TD) and allowed Dustin Keller just 19 yards on his three catches in Week 16. Todd Heap, meanwhile, produced an unexciting four catches for 35 yards on Saturday night.

Verdict: It's possible that Dustin Keller gets more looks from his quarterback in this one, but he has been used so infrequently this season that the matchup easily places him fourth among tight ends this week.

vs. Defense

The Jets' top-flight pass defense can be encouraged by the fact that Peyton Manning put up his worst interception rate since 2002 this year, ranking 19^th among qualified quarterbacks in the regular season.

On the other hand, it's never nice to go up against the league's seventh-best scoring offense, and Manning also posted the fourth-best touchdown rate at quarterback this year. On top of that, he and his offensive line compiled the league's lowest sack rate. The Jets figure to have trouble getting pressure on him, just like every other defense does. For what it's worth, they didn't hit him at all before Manning left the game in Week 16.

The Colts' running game is far from strong, but the pass offense is plenty good enough to set up for short-yardage rushing scores. All in all, the Jets always bring potential on D, but a matchup with the Colts is never favorable. It doesn't help that Joseph Addai and Donald Brown combined for just two fumbles all year, losing only one.

Verdict: Despite less than ideal conditions, the chance that the NFC title game could turn into a shootout ultimately makes the Jets look like this weekend's No. 2 fantasy defense (unless you want to take a shot on one of those "classic" Favre multi-interception games).

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Brett Favre Minnesota Vikings Madness

eric.huber — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 00:38:00 GMT

What would the old Brett Favre do? You know, the one who never did anything wrong, was always showing off his southern smile, and was the Madden Cruiser's number one face.

With the game out of reach, and just minutes before the purple and gold moved on to the NFC Championship game the Vikings offense, led by good old No. 4 and his bone-headed head coach decided that it was in their best interest to keep the field goal kicking team off the field; with a 24 point lead no less.

That's right, head coach Brad Childress and his cheap Erik the Red impersonation (that beard is ugly) was rubbing it in, taking it to the 'Boys, and allowing Brett Favre more glory than what was neccessary. He wanted to make sure the NFL world knew that the Vikings weren't going to let off the gas pedal, even if it meant unneccessarily kicking a team while it was down.

To be fair, though, this is isn’t the first time that the Vikings have run up the score, and it probably won‘t be the last if the Vikings are to have it their way moving forward.

In Week 11 in a home game against the Seattle Seahawks the Vikings were up 28-3 in the fourth quarter when Tarvaris Jackson gave Brett Favre some rest only to throw a 34-yard touchdown pass to Sidney Rice. The very next week with the score 27-10 and 30-10 against the Bears Mr. Favre was still throwing up bombs late in the third quarter and in to the fourth.

Then there was the clincher --- Week 17 against the Giants. With the score 34-0 halfway through the third quarter the Vikings recover a fumble on the eight yard line to make it first and goal. Favre, already with 300+ yards passing and three touchdowns, passes on the first three downs when he has one helluva of a runner in goal-to-go situations behind him. And then on fourth and goal the Vikings offense stays on the field, and the magical (said with sarcasm) Favre throws a one yard dagger to his fullback.

Do you see what’s wrong with this picture?

The bottom line is that Childress has been doing this for quite some time, and isn’t breaking any rules by doing so. However, it bothers me that Favre, just two years removed from being named Sports Illustrated Sportsman of the Year would be a part of an unsportsmanlike act in not just one, but several NFL games.

The worst part of it all is that the Vikings have a premier running back in Adrian Peterson to go along with one of the best back-ups (Chester Taylor) in the NFL behind him. It makes you kind of wonder: Has Brett Favre changed since he found his magic? Does he really care about sportsmanship or his teammates? Is he really a selfish player disguised behind a southern smile?

Then again, if you won every award there is to win, set the records he has set, pissed off two other franchises, and already befriended John Madden, would you care anymore about everyone else?

We move on to another sore subject of mine……

Since when did Brett Favre make Sidney Rice in to a superstar wide receiver? The last time I checked Sidney Rice made himself in to the star he is today with a new attitude and some great teaching and work outs with Cris Carter and Larry Fitzgerald during this past offseason.

All Brett Favre has done is thrown him jump balls, for which he has used his natural ability and drive to pull down and take in for touchdowns. The Vikings already had a so-called top flight receiver in Bernard Berrian, and his numbers have dropped dramatically since Favre’s arrival. In 2007 (Chicago) and 2008 (Minnesota) Berrian averaged roughly 60 yards per game. This past season he didn’t even average 40 per game and for the first time in the past three seasons didn’t record one 100-yard game.

Honestly, I like to compare Sidney Rice’s arrival to Randy Moss‘ rookie arrival in 1998. Like Moss, Rice has the natural ability to be a big-time receiver in the NFL, but up until this past season lacked that drive to be the best. Like Rice in 2009, Moss had an aging quarterback in Randall Cunningham throwing up jump balls during his 1998 rookie campaign. Has anyone come out and said Cunningham made Randy Moss in to the player he is today?

No, Sidney Rice is not Randy Moss, but like Moss he showcased his abilities because he had mentors like Cris Carter and Larry Fitzgerald (who was the ball boy when Moss was in Minnesota) not aging quarterbacks like Favre and Cunningham. So please stop with the ludicrous “Favre made Rice” line.

Next!

Ok, so after all that No. 4 bashing I do have to give Mr. Favre one compliment. The best thing that he has done this season besides lock-in Brad Childress as the Vikings head coach for a few more seasons (thank god), is that he’s inspired the purple and gold to play at a higher level as a unified team. Confused yet?

I may be in a bashing mood, but even I can appreciate something that only a select group (Peyton Manning and Drew Brees just to name a few) have the ability to bring to a team. It’s something that you should appreciate too no matter if you love him or hate him.

Good luck No. 4. But if you blow it or get your butt whipped please don’t cry a damn river again on national TV.

My guess is that Favre will reign once more, and throw a few touchdown passes in a classic New Orleans shootout. Who dat?!

AFC Championship: Judging Fantasy Conditions for Colts Players

mattschauf — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 20:02:00 GMT

If you drafted a playoff fantasy team before the first round, you obviously would have (or, at least, should have) done so with an eye on being able to field a worthwhile team each week and pile up as many total points as possible.

If you're heading into the draft room this week, however, you have no chance at the overall prize and are clearly playing for just this week.

So, although we never know for sure how many rounds a team will last in the playoffs, the change in circumstance makes this week's matchups all the more important. That's why I think it's time to get deep into the numbers and look at what one needs to target with so few players to choose from.

Let's start with the seemingly most unlikely member of the 2010 final four, which also happens to bring the toughest pass defense.

N.Y. JETS

vs. Quarterbacks

The Jets were the toughest team in the league on fantasy quarterbacks during the regular season. They not only allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks but did so by a pretty wide margin. New York gave up 36.7 fewer fantasy points than the next team (Buffalo), with no other consecutive teams separated in the standings by more than 18.

The Jets allowed just eight touchdown passes all year -- six fewer than any other defense -- and let just one quarterback (Chad Henne) throw more than one in a game. Just four quarterbacks reached 200 yards passing against the Jets, with only Tom Brady -- in his second meeting -- surpassing 241.

Of course, although the Jets were stingy all year to opposing passing games, Peyton Manning fared pretty well in roughly a half's worth of work against them in Week 16. Manning didn't get sacked at all before leaving that game and did complete two-thirds of his passes (14 of 21). Facing the defense that led the league in fewest net yards per pass attempt (4.6 -- passing yards minus sack yards divided by attempts), the league MVP threw for 192 yards in less than three quarters for a rate of 9.1 per attempt. He didn't produce a touchdown throw, but his team ran for two scores in tallying up 15 points before Manning checked out.

The Jets, for their part, didn't allow anything to Cincinnati's anemic pass offense in the first round but allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 298 yards on Sunday. New York still won the game and forced two interceptions from a guy who had tossed just nine all year, but Rivers put up one touchdown and barely missed another before scoring on a sneak. His 7.1 net yards per pass attempt on 40 throws also stood as a much higher mark than the Jets allowed during the regular season.

Verdict: Treat Peyton Manning as Peyton Manning this week, rather than the next guy to have trouble against Darrelle Revis & Co.

vs. Running Backs

It stood to reason that the Jets would be in at least some trouble on run defense after losing nose tackle Kris Jenkins for the season in Week 6, but that never came to pass. In fact, a defense that allowed 4 yards per carry to opposing backs through the first six games gave up just 3.6 per rush over the final 10.

Where the big guy would have come in handy, though, would have been in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Six of the 10 rushing touchdowns that New York allowed to running backs during the regular season came in the final eight games -- and that would have been seven scores if Maurice Jones-Drew hadn't kneed fantasy owners at the goal line. Among those six touchdowns, Joseph Addai (from 21 yards out) and Donald Brown (7) each scored on the ground in the last meeting with the Jets.

The Jets didn't have much trouble Sunday with a Chargers running game that struggled all year, but Cedric Benson had his way with them in the wild-card round.

Don't look for a ton of passing points for running backs against the Jets, either, which helped them allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points for the season in point-per-reception formats such as ours. Only three opposing backs caught as many as four passes against New York, which tied for the sixth-fewest receptions yielded to the position. Only Kevin Faulk reached 50 yards receiving, and no back caught a touchdown pass.

Verdict: Addai retains scoring potential because of the strength of his offense but doesn't look like one of the top two running backs in the remaining field. We can't expect much in the way of yardage, which makes him more of a boom-or-bust proposition.

vs. Wide Receivers

This is another position against which the Jets proved stingiest in the league, but I think it might be more telling to highlight the successes of opposing receivers rather than building the easy case against them.

Only five wideouts all year caught as many as five passes against the Jets -- and four of them were Patriots. Three of those players surpassed five catches, and you should notice some similarities among them: Julian Edelman (eight), Wes Welker (15) and Austin Collie (six).

Sure, all three happen to be white dudes, but the more-important point is that all three are also possession-type receivers who often line up in the slot. As strong as the Jets are at corner on the outside, it's apparent that a couple of well-planned offenses with smart quarterbacks figured out that it's best to attack the Jets in the middle of the field.

Beyond that, I think it's worth noting that although the Jets allowed the second-fewest touchdown catches by opposing wideouts during the regular season, three of the five came from more than 20 yards away. Mike Sims-Walker (26 yards out), Lee Evans (37) and Ted Ginn (53) all bring a fair amount of speed to the position, as does Nate Washington, who scored from closer against the Jets. (The fifth touchdown went to physical freak Randy Moss from just 4 yards out.)

Pierre Garcon has emerged as a big-play threat in the Colts passing game and should draw a fair number of matchups against Lito Sheppard, who can be burned deep. The Chargers got Vincent Jackson seven catches and 111 yards Sunday by moving him around to get him away from Darrelle Revis.

Of course, all that said, the Jets did not only allow the fewest PPR fantasy points to wide receivers but again led the next team by a wider margin than separated any other consecutive clubs. Despite potential upside for Collie and Garcon, Reggie Wayne faces a matchup with the league's best cover man.

Verdict: Austin Collie looks better than his teammates here, with Pierre Garcon also more attractive than Reggie Wayne.

vs. Tight Ends

While Collie led the Colts with six catches in the first meeting with the Jets, Dallas Clark finished just behind him with four. Together, they caught nine of the 14 passes that Manning completed being pulled with other starters.

The Jets stood as the second-toughest defense on fantasy tight ends in the regular season, but Clark is really more of a slot receiver for the Colts -- the spot that we just highlighted as having produced the best results against this tough pass defense.

No tight end caught more than four passes against New York all season, and only three reached 50 yards. Clark, in just about a half of work against the team, finished with four receptions for 57 yards. Antonio Gates led the Chargers with eight receptions in Sunday's loss.

Verdict: In spite of (actually, perhaps because of, thanks to the difficult conditions for Wayne) the matchup, Dallas Clark is clearly the strongest tight end option still playing and should be drafted significantly earlier than the rest, particularly in PPR formats.

vs. Defense

Mark Sanchez was allowed to get pretty comfy against a weak Bengals pass rush that managed just one quarterback hit and no sacks. As a result, the rookie went 12-of-15 in victory.

The Chargers got after him a bit more, sacking Sanchez once, hitting him three times and forcing one interception. Still, San Diego doesn't bring near the rush that the Colts do. All three of their hits came from blitzing defensive backs.

Dwight Freeney played quite sparingly in the first meeting with the Jets and still came away with two sacks. Robert Mathis didn't play at all. Between that pair and a defense more willing to blitz than at any time under Tony Dungy, Sanchez could be in for an erratic day.

Verdict: Like Dallas Clark, the Indy defense looks like the best fantasy bet at the position.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

NFL Picks-Divisional Round

Brian Saxe — Sat, 16 Jan 2010 01:58:00 GMT

Why is this still called the Divisional Round? None of the match ups are divisional games, it would make too much sense to change it, like a Rookie pay scale, and reviewable penalties. But anyways, I was 2-2 in Wild Card weekend and I forgot to update my overall regular season record which was a sparkling 93-82-5 after going 11-5 in the usually unpredictable Week 17. I’m disappointed my Packers are done but that game was one of the more epic Playoff games we have seen and definitely made up for the 3 crappy games that preceded it.

There are some good games this weekend, so let’s get on with the picks.

Arizona Cardinals (10-6) @ (-7) New Orleans Saints (13-3)

Many people expect this to be just like the Green Bay/Arizona game from last week with no defense and two in sync offenses. I think it’s low scoring in the first half and opens up a bit in the second half. Arizona might be a little shaky starting out on the road and the Saints haven’t been in rhythm for a long time.
I predict the Cardinals to not only cover, but win this game. They know how to turn it on in the Playoffs apparently.

Baltimore Ravens (9-7) @ (-7) Indianapolis Colts (14-2)

The Colts are in a similar situation as the Saints with an offense that runs the risk of being out of sync. The Colts will still win but I think this will be a very close game. The Ravens absolutely dominated the Patriots and didn’t even play their best game.

Dallas Cowboys (11-5) @ (-3) Minnesota Vikings (12-4)

This is a tough game to predict. If this was in Dallas I would pick Dallas -7, on an outdoor field I would take Dallas -10. In the humpty dome it’s a tough call, but I’ll take the Vikings. You would think the Vikings would have trouble protecting Favre but I think their running game slows down the Cowboys pass rush. I think the Cowboys will have the problem with protection when you factor in the crowd noise (real or not) and Flozell Adams committing 36 penalties.

New York Jets (9-7) @ (-8) San Diego Chargers (13-3)

I’m still not buying the Jets. They got to face a bad offensive team in Cincinnati with a Quarterback who had an all time bad performance. Sure, Darrelle Revis will shut down Vincent Jackson but who guards the rest of the big receivers from San Diego? I don’t expect the Jets to hang around for very long.