Schauf – Fantasy Island

IDP Sleepers -- AFC South

mattschauf — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 15:48:00 GMT

I have to say, it's difficult to work on a weekly IDP sleepers series when you're in the midst of two dynasty startup drafts with industry peers, especially when the lineup for each includes at least seven defensive-player spots.

On the one hand, my first obligation must be to (both of) my readers, and I should assume that the guys I'm drafting against already have their own strategy and preferences and won't be swayed by my words.

On the other hand, there's a reason you go into a draft with your own list, and it's never fun to let others peek. I don't want to clue my competitors in on guys that I think are ready to break out -- even if it simply means that an owner might pick one a round or two earlier than he was already planning.

Still, I have to uphold my loyalty to my brother and the FF Librarian (my aforementioned pair of readers) and take what comes with it. And to any of my leaguemates reading this: Have some pride. Take the next highest-scoring dude from last year and leave my sleepers for me. Thanks.

Houston -- Connor Barwin, DE

The Texans brought in Antonio Smith as a free agent last off-season and got solid play from him at left end in 2009, but they still need to enhance their pass rush.

Barwin was actually outperformed as a rusher in 2009 by Smith, who scored pretty well (13^th among ends) in the rankings at ProFootballFocus.com. However, sack numbers matter more than actual pass-rush performance to fantasy players, and Smith has yet to put up more than 5.5 sacks through five years of regular NFL action.

Barwin didn't prove special in limited snaps as a rookie, but we have to remember that the second-round pick only played defense for a year in college. After three seasons as a tight end at Cincinnati, he led the Big East and ranked 16^th in the nation with 11 sacks as a senior defensive end. It was clearly his potential as a pass rusher that led to his rising hype in the 2009 draft buildup and Houston's eventual willingness to make him a first-day pick.

The young end should see increased playing time going forward and he gets more comfortable with the league and his position. Anyone playing in a scoring system that limits the impact of sacks would probably be best off ignoring him completely, but sack-heavy leagues should take a flier.

If the Texans can get after quarterbacks a bit more, continue their stronger play against the run and keep putting up enough points pressure opposing offenses, there's also room for a statistical breakout at corner. The trouble is figuring out who that player might be. Candidates at this point include Glover Quin, Antwaun Molden and perhaps still Fred Bennett -- who has underwhelmed the past couple of years after a promising rookie campaign.

Indianapolis -- Philip Wheeler, OLB

Let me first say that Wheeler's breakout isn't likely to arrive in 2010 unless Gary Brackett or Clint Session gets hurt. Now, however, is the time to stash Wheeler on a deep IDP roster.

Wheeler opened his second season last year as a reserve but emerged as the starter on the strong side after Tyjuan Hagler suffered his latest injury. Wheeler showed in starting those final seven games that he has tremendous speed and quickness, and he looked pretty decent at flowing to the ball. The speed is the key, as that has always been a focus for the Colts with their defensive front seven.

Now, Wheeler is in line to start on the strong side again this season, and that placement will limit his numbers. He and Hagler combined to surpass four solo tackles just three times in 16 starts there. However, looking back over previous seasons will show Session and David Thornton among the players manning that position for the Colts -- players who have gone on to put up attractive numbers at other spots.

Session, in particular, is signed just through the end of this season, which could open up his weakside job in 2011. Wheeler -- who played some defensive end and middle linebacker in college, in addition to the outside -- could also be a candidate for the middle the next time Brackett goes down or whenever his Colts career ends. Of course, there's also always the possibility that Wheeler makes his way to another team and finds a more productive starting role.

At the least, Wheeler is a cheap option to stash on your bench for now. If his numbers never match his speed, you won't have lost much by taking a shot.

Jacksonville -- Derrick Harvey, DE

At some point a player can't really keep wearing the "sleeper" hat, instead trading it in for a "bust" bag. Frankly, that time might have already come for Harvey. However, I'm willing to give the former top 10 pick a shot for at least one more year.

His new position coach (who has never shown even the slightest error in judgment) is a fan of Harvey and says that the Lions -- for whom he was coaching at the time -- were hoping to draft the Florida end in the middle of Round 1 before the Jaguars snatched him at 8. A long holdout cast a pall over Harvey's rookie season and seemed to stunt his development from there, though, and he didn't do a whole lot in 2009 to show us that things were changing.

Still, Harvey -- who left school a year early -- will be just 23 when the 2010 season begins. More importantly, if he holds down a starting job, he'll be lining up across from Aaron Kampman -- a significant upgrade over the players who have previously manned Jacksonville's end spots.

Kampman is reportedly slated to move to the right side after spending his Packers career on the left end, which will keep Harvey in the position he played most in 2009. Whether that changes between here and the start (or end) of the 2010 season remains to be seen, but it can't hurt for Harvey to have a chance to get comfortable. After the aforementioned doomed rookie year, Jacksonville spent the early part of 2009 trying to figure out if it wanted to go 4-3 or 3-4.

Finally set in the proper alignment, the Jaguars need only to worry about coaching up their guys. Harvey should be able to find extra motivation in the fact that he's widely labeled a bust following two low-impact seasons. If he doesn't change opinions this year, it might be time to give up on him. Until then, he's a cheap, low-risk option with upside. (Barring a sudden shift, for example, I'm on the verge of picking him up for just $4 in a dynasty startup auction.)

Tennessee -- Jacob Ford, DE

I mentioned the ProFootballFocus.com defensive-end rankings earlier in this column. If you look one spot below Antonio Smith in that linked list, you'll find this 26-year-old Titans end. You might also notice that none of the 13 players ranked ahead of Ford played fewer snaps than he did in 2009.

In two seasons of limited action, Ford has totaled 12.5 sacks for Tennessee. Unless the team drafts an immediate three-down player in April for this spot, that action shouldn't be quite so limited this year.

The departure of Kyle Vanden Bosch frees up reps for the team's other ends, and Ford has proven too good a pass rusher to not claim a fair share of those. The relatively slim 256-pounder doesn't seem likely to turn into a three-down end for Tennessee, which will limit his tackle production. He has just 48 total stops over the past two years.

Like with Barwin, however, sack-heavy scoring systems will find some value in Ford, who could be looking at his first 10-sack season in 2010.

Also check out sleepers from the AFC North and NFC North.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

IDP Sleepers -- NFC North

mattschauf — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 15:33:00 GMT

On the TV are 300 guys who spent the past three months carefully changing their hand positioning to shave 7 hundredths of a second off their 40-yard dashes.

The defenders are trying to show everyone that they can "flip their hips" and that they have a good "bubble." All we really know for sure, though, is that some of these guys will become immediately relevant in fantasy and render veteran teammates nearly useless.

Because we're still at least a couple of months away from figuring out just who this side of Darrius Heyward-Bey will be without use, though, let's throw a few more darts at some potential IDP sleepers for 2010.

I opened the series last week with the AFC North and will jump to its NFC counterpart this time - for no other reason than the fact that my colleague and Fantasy Lunch co-host Pat Hegewald asked me to. Here goes ...

Chicago - Henry Melton, DE

Zack Bowman will likely present good value at the point you can draft him in IDP leagues this year, but I don't think he qualifies for this spot after ranking fifth on the team in solos and picking off six passes last year. The Bears also face the coming year with a lot of uncertainty on defense. There's a real possibility that at least one starting 2010 safety and the left defensive end aren't currently on the roster.

Melton also presents plenty of uncertainty, as he missed his entire rookie season after hitting injured reserve. What we do know about the 6-3, 260-pounder, however, is that he is a supreme athlete.

Melton spent his first two college seasons as a running back and scored 16 touchdowns before moving over to the defense. As a senior lineman, he put up four sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss and 11 quarterback hurries. The one thing we did see from him in a Bears uniform in 2009 was that the team thinks so much of his athletic ability that it even put him back as a kick returner at least once in an exhibition game.

Now, Melton doesn't much of a future in the return game, but what he should have is opportunity. Adewale Ogunleye is fully expected to leave town as an unrestricted free agent, and there is no obvious heir to the starting left end position. Mark Anderson stepped in when Ogunleye missed the final two games last year and produced a sack in each outing, but Anderson has already flopped as a starter and looks like nothing more than a rush specialist and fill-in starter.

Melton, as I said, has yet to show he can be any more than that, and the Bears might well chase someone such as Julius Peppers or Aaron Kampman to take over the job. The former Longhorn, however, is at least intriguing.

Detroit - DeAndre Levy, MLB

Barring a big surprise between now and then, this 2009 third-round pick will open the 2010 season as Detroit's starting middle linebacker.

Despite coming into the league as an outside 'backer, Levy looked like the front-runner to start in the middle early in the practice season last year. The team then picked up Larry Foote via free agency, though, and left Levy to fill in where needed. That meant eight starts on the weak side in place of Ernie Sims and starts in the middle in the final two games.

In his 10 starts, Levy did put up numbers that extrapolate out to 109 total tackles and 74 solos for the season. Those aren't terrific numbers, but they would have tied him for 25th and 44th, respectively, in the league - and there's clear upside beyond that. Levy made at least eight total tackles in five of his final six starts and should get plenty of chances manning the middle full time. It won't hurt that the Lions' defense has ranked among the top 12 in most plays each of the past four seasons.

Finally, the team might even be wise to send Levy after the quarterback a few times. He didn't put up any sacks as a rookie but produced 14 over his final three college seasons.

Levy isn't the deepest sleeper in the world, but he will prove to be a later-round steal in most IDP leagues this year.

Green Bay - Jeremy Thompson, OLB

The biggest thing standing between Thompson and a real shot at starting on the left side is simply whether he'll be able to continue playing.

Thompson has yet to gain medical clearance to return since the spinal concussion on the practice field Dec. 4 that ended his 2009 season and scared everyone involved. Although that's always troubling, the fact is that plenty of time remains for him to get back on the field for 2010 workouts.

If he does return, plenty of other factors seem to be working in Thompson's favor. Aaron Kampman is all but gone, as he faces free agency and wasn't a terrific fit for the 3-4 outside linebacker job. Brad Jones, who took over when Kampman tore an ACL last season, played decently but didn't wow anyone with his pass-rush ability. Opportunity is what makes Thompson the pick here ahead of inside linebacker Desmond Bishop, who still has Nick Barnett and A.J. Hawk standing in his way. (Throw in the snaps that go to Brandon Chillar as well.)

Thompson garnered plenty of attention as a 3-4 pass rusher in training camp last year and also carries 20 more pounds than Jones. If he's OK physically, look for him to compete. Otherwise, Green Bay could be looking to a free agent or a rookie for this spot.

Minnesota - Tyrell Johnson/Jamarca Sanford, S

If these two young guys wind up sharing time at strong safety, then neither will provide consistent value to IDP owners. If either claims the job outright in camp, however, he could prove pretty productive.

The job was Johnson's for 15 games in his second season last year, but his performance proved inconsistent. Sanford, then a rookie, jumped in for some extra reps ahead of his teammate late in the year and continued the productive tackling that had him leave Ole Miss as the active SEC career tackle leader.

The Vikings could use some big-play spark at safety, after getting just one interception among their starters in 2009. Johnson presents more upside on that front -- having picked off 12 passes in college -- and will never have his athleticism questioned. He had only one interception in each of his first two pro seasons, however, despite a pretty good amount of playing time in each.

If Johnson fails to nail down the job heading into 2010, the Vikings have shown that they won't hesitate to shift to the strong-hitting young Sanford. He'd likely be the more consistent provider of fantasy numbers for that reason, though Johnson likely still has the edge for the job.

Of course, Minnesota could draft a kid at the end of next month to step ahead of both. Then again, if we had sure things in this space the whole "sleeper" label wouldn't really make much sense.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

IDP Sleepers -- AFC North

mattschauf — Wed, 24 Feb 2010 06:16:00 GMT

So, the past couple of years I did a series in which I looked ahead to the next season and picked one relatively deep potential IDP sleeper per team. The first time around, I actually made it through every team. Last year, though, I inadvertently raised the question of how many installments you actually have to supply to call it a series.

Some players have gone on to realize good fantasy value. Some have never become starters. That's the nature of a sleeper. He might wake up right away and carpe his diem, or he might be like my wife and shoot dirty looks when you try to wake him up -- even if his alarm went off 45 minutes ago.

Anyway, this year I'm going to try to get the sleeper train rolling again, and I'm going to kick it off in what I think might be the most intriguing division for 2010 IDP breakouts. Obviously, some of the picks I make in this space might look stupid after free agency arrives and the draft occurs, but we have to talk about something in these early months.

Baltimore -- Dannell Ellerbe, ILB

This young Raven opened the 2009 season as a promising young player in a crowded Ravens linebacking corps. He ended it as the starter next to Ray Lewis for the final three regular-season games and two playoff contests.

At 6-1, 243 pounds, Ellerbe brings nice size to the position and already plays the run well. He'll need to develop in pass coverage to avoid being taken off the field in passing situations, though. Ellerbe broke up just one pass in his entire college career and got to just one last season.

The challenge for his numbers is that Ellerbe took over the role that used to belong to Bart Scott, who enjoyed a huge 2006 but otherwise helped clear the way for Ray Lewis to make plays much of the time. With Lewis' career winding down, however, the Ravens will have to develop other playmakers at the spot and rely on others to make some of those plays even before their leader dances spasmodically off into the sunset.

Ellerbe posted modest tackle totals (until a 10-tackle effort in the playoff loss to Indy) and didn't get to chase quarterbacks much, but the undrafted former Bulldog posted 4.5 sacks as a college junior and should start to get more responsibilities as he gets comfy in the pros.

(Runner-up: Lardarius Webb, CB -- No, I won't be doing this for every team, but I couldn't keep from mentioning the 2009 rookie who won a starting job and returned kickoffs. Webb showed to be a willing tackler from his corner spot, broke up six passes and averaged 26.2 yards per kick return. Had his season not ended early with an ACL tear, he might have been the pick here ahead of Ellerbe. He should be stashed in keeper formats, and keep an eye on his progress as the season approaches.)

Cincinnati -- Rey Maualuga, MLB (?)

All I can say is that it's about friggin' time that reports start to surface of the Bengals moving him to the middle.

I enjoy a good bowtie as much as the next guy, but Dhani Jones has a pretty clear ceiling on his value beyond that. To keep him at middle linebacker and work Maualuga in on the strong side as a rookie simply didn't make any sense to me.

Maualuga was a beast of a middle linebacker in college, piling up hard hits and big plays all over the place. He might not have been the most disciplined of middle men, but getting him as much seasoning as possible in the position as a pro would seem like the best way to fix that.

If this rumored move comes to fruition -- as it should -- Cincinnati will at least head into its 2010 opener with its best middle linebacker since Odell Thurman decided that being a jerk was more fun than playing in the NFL. I think Maualuga -- who had six sacks as a college junior and 12 pass breakups in four years at USC -- could rank among the top 15 fantasy linebackers right away.

Cleveland -- Marcus Benard, OLB

One of the Browns' biggest issues in recent seasons (and there have certainly been plenty to choose from) has been finding a quality pass rush. Kamerion Wimbley put up 11 sacks as a rookie but hasn't topped 6.5 in a season since, largely because his team has been devoid of other consistent threats.

Benard, a 2009 rookie, hasn't seen enough time yet to prove his consistency, but he got fairly well-acquainted with opposing backfields late in the year. He posted a half-sack or more in three of the final four games and tallied seven quarterback hits over that span. Football fans might remember his introductory two-sack performance in that Thursday-night upset of the Steelers.

With the Cleveland linebackers -- a group already lacking a clear hierarchy -- beset by injuries last year and so much turnover in the team leadership this winter, it's impossible to know how things will shake out. Benard, however, did enough in the final quarter of 2009 to at least get a shot at an increased role in 2010.

Pittsburgh -- Lawrence Timmons, ILB

OK, this last one's a bit of a copout. Folks who follow individual defenders have to be well aware of Timmons by now, but I just don't like anyone else to qualify here.

The Steelers need to figure out their corners still and might introduce someone there for 2010 with sleeper potential. William Gay played generously enough to keep getting thrown at, but how much higher than 70 solo tackles can we really expect him to go. There might be some shuffling up front to get 2009 first-rounder Ziggy Hood more playing time, but Aaron Smith and Brett Keisel are still around.

Timmons started 13 games, played in 14 and came away with seven sacks and four forced fumbles, but he still seems to present upside. Health has been a key issue, stunting his rookie-year progress before interrupting last year. If he plays a full schedule, Timmons should easily rank among the top 20 linebackers. Further growth in his tackle numbers will likely be spurred whenever James Farrior moves on.

So, yeah, Timmons looked good heading into last year. And he still does.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Cowboys backfield an attractive muddle

mattschauf — Mon, 22 Feb 2010 15:52:00 GMT

This week mark's my second round of inclusion in Fantasy Football Trader's weekly roundtable column. This week's question (followed by my answer -- abridged from my normal long-windedness to fit the format) ...

Which Cowboys RB will present the most value at fantasy drafts this Fall?

This is a wide open question with answers that can vary depending on interpretation, but I'll try to answer as straightforwardly as possible:

Marion Barber will lead the group in touchdowns and drive you crazy with the injury reports. Felix Jones will improve significantly on his first two seasons, produce the most yardage and probably miss a couple of games. Tashard Choice will continue to make fantasy owners wish he played for a different team, unless one of the other two suffers a significant injury.

Barber has been at his most consistently productive when spelled by another back. His breakout 16-touchdown 2006 came with just 135 carries (and 158 total touches) to Julius Jones' 267. Barber's next most productive year came in 2007, with just a 55 percent share of the carries that went to him and Jones.

In 2008, a Thanksgiving Day toe injury made it tough to know how Barber would have held up down the stretch, but there's no denying that he wore down late in 2009. After averaging 4.6 yards a carry through the first 10 contests (missing one), he went for just 3.5 per rush in the final five games - including pedestrian outings against lackluster run defenses such as San Diego and New Orleans. That precipitated a mere 11 carries and 18 yards in the playoffs.

Meanwhile, a new Jones was finally getting a larger share of the load and looking good while doing it. The 5.9 yards per carry is no illusion, as even when Jones picks up 5 or 6 yards, he looks like he's a step or two from breaking a long one. He'll probably top out in the 12-15 carry a game range to keep from burning out, but Jones' 30 rushes in the two playoff games were twice as many as either of his backfield mates.

Should he average just 12 attempts per game, Jones would need just 5.2 yards a rush to reach 1,000 for the season. He doesn't look like he'll become a prime receiving option soon, but Jones should be able to reach six or seven touchdowns along the way. I'd take him ahead of Barber at this point.

Finally, there's Choice, who could well be the most consistent producer of the group if he got the chance. You could make an argument for him as the top value, considering Choice will go much later than the other two (seven rounds later, in Round 13, according to very early Fantasy Football Calculator numbers). He'll be a very risky fantasy play, however, unless injury befalls Jones or Barber.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Way-too-early mock conclusions

mattschauf — Wed, 17 Feb 2010 16:36:00 GMT

About a week ago, I gave some early reaction to a mock draft hosted by Razzball's Chet Gresham, so I think it's fitting to take a look back now on the completed exercise.

The primary lesson here, was that I won't be using CouchManagers.com anytime soon. The price (free) was certainly right and the interface actually pretty good, but the slickest site in the world wouldn't cover for a lacking player database.

I was a little worried when looking through the draft list to find things like Torry Holt still listed as a Ram, but it's easy to laugh at something like that and move past it. Perhaps, like I, they want to pretend Holt's 2009 never happened.

The absence of 2009 rookies such as Mike Thomas, Mike Wallace and even a few others not named Mike was more annoying, particularly considering that classmates such as Percy Harvin and Hakeem Nicks could be found. Guys such as Devin Aromashodu and Justin Forsett who have been around the league for a couple of years but played sparingly were also missing, but the topper was the absence of San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith.

Maybe Couch Managers was created by a mourning Niners fan with a Jesse Sapolu jersey and an Aaron Rodgers voodoo doll, but I'm of the opinion that your football-draft database should contain the still-active No. 1 pick from five years ago.

Site gripes aside, though, the draft itself was fun and did offer a few insights that may be valuable later. Here are my round-by-round picks with some notes ...

Round 1-Pick 1 Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville

I'll put off full evaluation of the top 2010 pick until much closer to real draft time. For what it's worth, though, I made my case for MJD over Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson (even in this non-PPR format) last week.

2-12 Miles Austin, WR, Dallas

The reasoning for my developing fantasy crush on Austin can also be found in that previous article. I believe he'll be landing on my team in a lot of drafts in 2010.

3-1 Randy Moss, WR, New England

He's getting old. He's wearing down. He dogs it sometimes (or has one of his best games ever, depending on who you ask). He gave us a measly 11 touchdown catches in the Year of the Cassel, and could muster only 13 to tie for the league lead in an injury-riddled 2009. I'll take my chances.

4-12 Brandon Jacobs, RB, N.Y. Giants

I considered Jacobs on my previous turn but decided that I was willing to wait to see if he lasted and couldn't pass on that receiver duo. We all know that injury is the big concern with him, but you just have to go in knowing that you're likely to miss him for three games or so. Playing 13 games in 2008 and just 11 in 2007 didn't keep him from reaching 1,000 yards both years. In the three seasons he has carried at least 200 times, Jacobs has twice finished the year with a 5-yard per-carry average. His 2009 was troubling, but Jacobs finally admitted after the season that he should have just rested his early injury instead of pushing through it at limited productivity. Even with Ahmad Bradshaw, Jacobs brings beast potential in a non-PPR format.

5-1 Donovan McNabb, QB, Philadelphia

This is earlier than I'd take him most of the time, but the surprising early run on quarterbacks left plenty of runners and receivers on the board while thinning the ranks of passers. Of course, I'd be lying if I said I didn't slap on my Eagles-fan homer goggles whenever I draft McNabb, but I trust him more than Jay Cutler, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning - the next three quarterbacks selected after this spot.

6-12 Fred Jackson, RB, Buffalo

I have to think Jackson wouldn't stick around this long in a format that counts receptions, but I think he's very good value at this point even without that. Obviously, his stock rises if Marshawn Lynch does actually leave. Even if he doesn't, though, Jackson has averaged half a yard more per carry over the past three seasons than the Bills' official starter, including a very impressive 4.5 per rush behind last year's crappy line.

7-1 Robert Meachem, WR, New Orleans

I wasn't required to take any math in college, but I'm pretty sure that nine scores among 45 catches means that 20 percent of his receptions put him in the end zone. Two-thirds of his catches overall went for first downs. This is a big-play guy in a high-scoring offense who only started seven games last year. His production will only increase with more opportunities.

8-12 Reggie Bush, RB, New Orleans

Whereas I wonder if Jackson would go earlier in PPR, I know Bush wouldn't drop close to this point. A rocky season that included periodic benching still resulted in eight total touchdowns for Bush, though, and he added two more in the playoffs. After getting pulled in the near-loss at Washington, Bush showed more willingness to run with power and should get more touches in 2010. I don't think he'll be leaving the Saints (despite any contract questions/issues), but a new team would likely increase his touches further. Bush isn't a guy to trust as a non-PPR starter, but he's well worth a shot at the end of Round 8 as a No. 4 back.

9-1 Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo

Poor Lee Evans. If this guy could get a real NFL quarterback, he could really do some things. As it was, with Trent Edwards and Ryan Fitzpatrick occasionally floating passes far enough to reach him, Evans put up seven touchdowns last year on a team that saw no other player score more than four. That was the fourth time in his six seasons that Evans has scored at least seven times despite also entertaining the likes of Kelly Holcomb, J.P. Losman and the ghost of Drew Bledsoe. Even if Buffalo continues to not answer its quarterback question, Evans is a solid guy to plug in for bye weeks, particularly without reception scoring.

10-12 LenDale White, RB, Tennessee (for now)

I wanted no part of this guy in drafts last year, following his 15-touchdown outlier of a 2008. I'll gladly take a shot in Round 10 of non-PPR at this point, though, with White likely heading off to some Chris Johnson-free team. Seems to me like he'd be an ideal target for Seattle.

11-1 Josh Morgan, WR, San Francisco

His failure to latch onto a more prominent role early in the season, followed by the casting of Michael Crabtree's shadow over the second half, should ensure that Morgan can be had late once again this season. It's easy to go cold on a player who falls short of hype for two straight years, but Morgan will be just 25 when the season starts and has yet to play with a stable quarterback situation. He's not going to be the Niners' No. 1, but a season of 60 to 65 catches, 700 yards and five or six touchdowns should be well within reach.

12-12 Heath Miller, TE, Pittsburgh

I'd have jumped on a tight end much earlier if we were getting a point per reception. I almost always won't when we're not. This is exactly why. Miller ranked among the position's top 10 in receptions, yards and touchdowns (with the TDs right in line with his previous output) and came off the board as the 15^th tight end. Seattle's John Carlson would have been fine with me here, too, and he wound up going undrafted. This is a deep position, particularly if reception totals don't specifically matter.

13-1 Chad Henne, QB, Miami

I could try to blame the site's player listings, but it's my own stupid fault for not realizing that Carson Palmer remained on the board at this point. One should definitely not read this as a statement that I prefer Henne over Palmer, which I certainly do not. That said, I do like Henne as a late-round fantasy backup, a guy who could be worthwhile for a couple of games. He can likely be had a few rounds after Joe Flacco, and I think he carries less bust potential (re: multiple-interception game) than Matt Cassel.

14-12 Miami D

I was the last one to pick a defense, but I certainly don't think the Dolphins are destined for a No. 12 fantasy ranking. Increasing Cameron Wake's playing time should help with sack numbers, and Miami looks very strong at corner. Veteran Will Allen says he expects to reclaim his starting job, but he might not be able to with a couple of good young cover guys developing. Vontae Davis brings the kind of big-play ability that helps a defense's fantasy numbers. Most of all, of course, grabbing a defense too early at this stage -- before the NFL draft and open of free agency -- just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. It's one thing to judge the value of individual players in February but a whole other thing to get a handle on an entire group.

15-1 David Akers, K, Philadelphia

I guess I had to pick a kicker. I'll take a dependable veteran who tied for the league lead in field goals made and ranked second in scoring last year, backs a strong offense and happens to play for my favorite team.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Football's done. Time for ... FOOTBALL

mattschauf — Mon, 15 Feb 2010 18:55:00 GMT

So, I guess most football-heavy folks are probably going through some level of withdrawal right about now, but I have to admit that I'm rather excited.

For starters, we're now fully into NFL draft season, and the draft is simply my single favorite sporting event of the year. The Super Bowl is cool, but I've watched a team I had rooting interest in at the time play in that game just twice in my life -- and neither ended in victory.

The NFL draft, on the other hand, is the ultimate setting for those of us who find thrill in projecting what particular athletes will accomplish, what specific teams should or will do and which year we'll actually see Mel Kiper and Todd McShay get into a slap fight. (Actually, Mike Mayock's terrific material, combined with the presence of Chris Berman and Meshawn on ESPN, has me now watching NFL Network almost exclusively on draft weekend.)

It's fun this time of year to get better acquainted with the prospects and start trying to figure out what we can expect from them in fantasy.

And on that fantasy front, I've recently jumped on board Fantasy Football Trader's weekly off-season roundtable and kicked off the inaugural draft for a new dynasty league with 15 of my industry brethren. A dynasty format has been the one thing really lacking from my fantasy portfolio recently, as other commitments and lack of connection with leaguemates led me away from my last such foray.

This league even uses IDPs, so I'm quite excited to get things going. I'm sure I'll mention the draft and the league itself from time to time in this space, in case anyone's interested (... or even if you aren't).

Speaking of defensive players, the last thing that has me anxious for this game-less time of year is that I plan to get more off-season content posted. The first launch of RapidDraft and other work duties tended to sap writing time in 2009, but I don't plan to let the same happen this time around.

In particular, I'm looking forward to restarting the division-by-division IDP-sleeper series that stalled out last winter, and there has been some interesting recent news on the defensive front that could impact some of those sleeper situations. Namely ...

The Giants release MLB Antonio Pierce

This wasn't a surprising move. I'm no NFL personnel guy or anything, but a veteran linebacker coming off a neck injury who will turn 32 in October and already appeared to be in decline doesn't seem like all that attractive a prospect.

There will be plenty said about the leadership New York's defense will lose with Pierce gone, but we're only concerned with the tangible impact on the field. The fact is that Pierce's production had slipped noticeably after a couple of pretty good seasons to start his stint with the Giants. Youngster Jonathan Goff got a crack at the middle job after Pierce hit injured reserve last year, but he fared about as well as Gerris Wilkinson has every year he headed into camp as the weakside favorite. That is to say, Goff doesn't look like the strongest bet to open 2010 in that spot.

It's way too early for us to know who will, but we can start to assess the possibilities. Chase Blackburn got a turn in 2009 as well but continues to look like little more than a fill-in player. Danny Clark spent most of the past two seasons starting on the strong side for the Giants, but he previously manned the middle in Oakland's 4-3. He will turn 33 in May and stands as no kind of long-term answer, though.

Perhaps the Giants will take a look at Michael Boley or Clint Sintim inside, but they seem more-likely pegged for the starting outside spots. That leaves free agency -- with little beyond Gary Brackett on the unrestricted market -- and the draft as options. This year's linebacker class looks strong, so I'd expect the Giants to grab a prospect at some point within the first three rounds.

Come May we should have a better idea of who will (or at least could) take over for Pierce.

Porter released by Dolphins, thrown back into captivity by NFL

Another non-shocker of a move saw Miami try to get rid of a loudmouthed, aging player at a position where the team doesn't need him. The surprising part, of course, was the league's declaration that salary-cap facts made the move illegal before the new fiscal year starts.

Whenever he actually leaves South Beach, all that matters here is that the Dolphins will be getting rid of Porter, which should excite IDP owners. This should help us to finally find out just what kind of production Cameron Wake can offer in the NFL.

Miami coaches failed to get the former CFL defensive player of the year any kind of consistent playing time, but what Wake accomplished in that sparse action indicates that he'll be a strong sack factor with more snaps. According to ProFootballFocus.com, only the lack of opportunities kept Wake from ranking among the league's most productive pass rushers in 2009. Had he reached the 200-snap threshold at the same performance level, the outside linebacker would have led their Pass Rushing Productivity rankings.

Wake did put up 5.5 sacks in limited 2009 action (though the first 2.5 shouldn't count, because they came against the Bills), so opportunity just might be the only thing between him and double digits.

Seahawks sign Ricky Foley

I saw him referred to as both "Ricky" and "Rick" in reports on the signing. I'll stick with the former, because I think the latter makes him sound more like a one-hit popster from the '80s or a Little League coach.

Wake's trip to the NFL from the Canadian league last off-season likely helped open the market for 2009's CFL co-leader in sacks to do the same. Like with Wake last year, we can only wonder about the impact and playing time Foley will have in 2010.

Similar to Wake in size, Foley's situation is made more interesting by the fact that he joins a defense with little proven pass-rush ability and plenty of potential to change. New coach Pete Carroll retained Gus Bradley as defensive coordinator, but we have to assume that alterations will be made to a defense that tied for fifth-fewest sacks while allowing just more than 24 points a game.

The coaches involved are steeped in 4-3 fronts, so we should assume at this point that Seattle will stick to that - even if the ability on hand at linebacker might befit a switch to 3-4. One suggestion is that the team might introduce the "elephant" position that combines linebacker and defensive end responsibilities and was formerly made famous by players such as Charles Haley and Lawrence Taylor.

We'll have to see how everything gets sorted out in Seattle. For now, the best guess on Foley is he'll play a situational rush role at end, as the 245-pounder would likely have trouble holding up in extended duty on early downs. Limited snaps, of course, would limit his scoring chances.

E.J. Henderson targeting May workouts

This is a situation we'll have to monitor up to and through the time that Henderson gets back on the field, after the Alvin Mack-style injury we all watched on national TV. If he does make it back to some level of on-field workouts by May, being ready for the regular season in September should be realistic. Jasper Brinkley sure didn't do anything while filling in to make the team second-guess returning the job to Henderson ASAP.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Don't doubt Jermichael Finley

mattschauf — Fri, 12 Feb 2010 18:21:00 GMT

I've just joined the folks taking part in the weekly off-season roundtable hosted by Fantasy Football Trader. My first assignment was to assess whether Green Bay tight end Jermichael Finley's 2009 was fool's gold or a harbinger of further success. Here's why I'm buying Finley ...

Jermichael Finley is most certainly for real, and not just because I'm a big fan of attaching random letters to repurpose common first names.

Let's start with the obvious: At 6-foot-5 and 247 pounds, his combination of size, downfield speed and athleticism makes Finley the kind of matchup nightmare that everyone but Mike Martz dreams about lining up at tight end. At just 22 years old (and after having left college a year early), Finley is still growing as a player and learning.

Of course, that's not to discount what he already accomplished last year. Things got off to a relatively slow start before he missed three games with a left knee sprain. Upon his return, however, Finley immediately stepped in as a central figure in the Green Bay passing game. From Week 11 on, he was the second-most targeted Packer receiver - trailing Greg Jennings by just two - and caught eight more passes than anyone else on the team. The fact that Finley only led the team in targets in a game three times all season further shows the consistency with which he got looks from Aaron Rodgers.

Over that same seven-week stretch, six tight ends around the league were targeted more than Finley, but only Jason Witten (45) and Tony Gonzalez (39) collected more catches than his 38. That's an average of a little more than five receptions a game, a rate that would produce about 87 over a full season. Only Witten and Dallas Clark topped that total at tight end in 2009. (And no one approached my aptitude for alliteration.)

In the Packers' playoff loss, Jerm (we're tight) turned all six of his catches into first downs and took three for more than 20 yards. That's just one game but an important one that at least offers a glimpse at his value to his quarterback and big-play potential.

The one thing that might limit him in non-PPR formats is Green Bay's ability to spread the ball around in the passing game. Five different Packers fell in the range of four to six touchdown catches last season. Whereas Donald Driver is nearing the end (and watched his opportunities decrease as Finley emerged), James Jones and Jordy Nelson are young guys heading in the opposite direction. Still, Finley came up with five scores last year - including four in the final five games - and Donald Lee found the end zone five times as the primary tight end in 2008. It shouldn't take much for Finley to settle into the seven-touchdown area (with clear upside beyond that) over a full season, and we can't ask much more than that from a fantasy tight end.

Finally, the Packers can and will throw. In Rodgers' two seasons, they've tied for ninth and 10^th in the league in pass attempts. That better-than-average rate was actually down from the first and sixth rankings of coach Mike McCarthy's first two seasons.

Roll it all together, and Jermichael Finley should be pushing jer top five at tight end for 2010.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Way-too-early mock-draft lessons

mattschauf — Wed, 10 Feb 2010 05:30:00 GMT

I have to admit, I think it's kind of silly to be doing fantasy football mock drafts at this point in the year.

The draft hasn't happened. Free agency has yet to open. Chad Ochocinco still has the same last name. No Jaguars have been arrested.

You get the point. It's really early to get any real sense of how things will go in 2010 fantasy drafts.

That said, drafting is fun. I'd do it every day if it didn't result in angry glares from my wife and cut into the time available for reruns of Throwdown with Bobby Flay. So when someone asks me to join their mock draft -- as Razzball's Chet Gresham did this week -- I can see no reason to decline.

Despite my belief that you can't draw too many conclusions from a football mock in February, you can still learn a bit about your own feelings on certain players and how others are reacting to the just-completed season.

The 12-team Razzball mock is running slow style, giving each owner 8 hours to pick, but we're already four spots into the sixth round after starting on Monday night. Scoring follows ESPN's standard format, with no point per reception and 4-point touchdown passes. I wound up with the No. 1 pick, and here are some of the things I've taught myself so far:

Top pick? No thanks

Just like every year, I don't particularly like having the first pick. There's just not as clear a top shelf of one, two or three running backs as we've seen in the past. Of course, once the first round is over, it's actually not such a bad spot. Twelve wideouts caught at least nine touchdown passes last season, while eight compiled 1,200 yards or more. Seven quarterbacks threw for at least 28 touchdowns -- only the second time that happened in the 2000s. Not only is talent spread around at running back, but there's value hanging around at other positions, too.

I wound up going for Maurice Jones-Drew in the top slot, ahead of Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson. Jones-Drew outrushed Peterson last year on both a total-yards and per-carry basis behind a worse line and with much less of a pass offense to distract defenders. Johnson is coming off an unmistakably great 2009, but we all know he can't and won't get 350 carries a year. I know the "curse" doesn't kick in until 370, but I can't help wondering if Johnson's '09 workload will catch up to him in 2010.

I won't tell you you're wrong for favoring the 2,000-yard man, but I feel safer with Jones-Drew, who has averaged 13.5 touchdowns in his four seasons despite spending just one as a starter. I also expect Jacksonville's line to get stronger with better health at guard and more experience and time together for the young guys (such as the 2009 rookie tackles) and the group as a whole.

Who you're drafting with matters

Last year I was often among the first drafters to grab a quarterback, favoring Tom Brady in the second or third round and not being scared to grab Drew Brees or Peyton Manning in the first four rounds.

It didn't take too many "expert" drafts before I realized that passers tend to hang around longer among industry folks. That certainly wasn't the case with this group, though, as the first five quarterbacks disappeared before my second pick. Is this a trend based on the big passing numbers of last season or a quirk of this particular draft group?

I wouldn't be surprised to see a few quarterbacks go off the board a bit earlier this year, but I certainly think this example will prove an anomaly. I don't know if folks got caught up in a position run or what, but five QBs in the first 23 picks is a freakishly high percentage. I couldn't help but wonder how many teams Steve Spurrier was running.

I was not about to get caught in that early run, but the drop in dependability at the position I saw after Donovan McNabb led me to draft him at the top of Round 5, at least a round or two (maybe three) earlier than I think he'll be available this summer.

I really like Miles Austin

Obviously the lack of PPR scoring devalues wideouts, but the fact that only four were picked in the same span that saw five quarterbacks go indicates to me that other owners were miscalculating.

Just like most fantasy leagues, this draft calls for a lineup that includes three wide receivers, with two running backs and no flex. I thought about Brandon Jacobs at the 24-25 turn, but there was no way I could pass up Austin and Randy Moss as the fifth and sixth wideouts off the board, knowing both would be long gone by my next pick.

Don't tell my wife, but if Austin played for anyone other than Dallas (OK, and the Giants and Washington), I might be in love with him. He was absolutely awesome from Week 5 on, grabbing 76 passes for 1,239 yards and 10 touchdowns in those 12 games. He tied for fourth in the league in touchdown receptions for the season despite not starting for the first four weeks. He has good hands, running back legs and a good quarterback who will now actually have an off-season to work with Austin as his No. 1. I think he has a solid chance of finishing 2010 as the top-scoring fantasy wideout.

Oh yeah, and Moss is Moss. He was hurt for pretty much all of 2009, playing in a passing game that often left observers wondering what was wrong and did just enough to have folks question his effort. In the end, all he did was tie for the league touchdown lead and compile 1,264 yards receiving. Moss and Brady should both be in better physical shape this time around, and the former has scored no fewer than 11 touchdowns in a season as a Patriot.

Running backs will be there

I have to be honest, I started to worry when the rushers started to go after my two-receiver turn. Did I make the right call? Then the draft got back to me at slot 48, and Jacobs remained on the board. I had no trouble grabbing the guy I'd have been happy with two rounds earlier.

Jacobs had a rough 2009, but he has since conceded that he played through an early injury that he probably would have been better off resting. That followed consecutive years of 5 yards per carry, and he has reached seven rushing scores three times. Two of those seasons saw him garner fewer than 100 carries.

Split the difference between his 2009 and 2008, and Jacobs would bring 10 scores. I'll certainly take that from a No. 2 back, with plenty of rounds left in which to draft some insurance. Ahmad Bradshaw certainly figures to split the load, but Jacobs has never taken more than 224 handoffs in a season (last year) anyway.

We'll see how the rest of this thing plays out and if any of it looks anything like future mocks. Whatever happens, though, I'll enjoy it.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

A Football Dude Tries to Relearn Baseball

mattschauf — Mon, 01 Feb 2010 21:11:00 GMT

Wanna feel inadequate? Try dating a bisexual porn star.

I don't speak from experience there. I just feel pretty safe in the assumption.

My recent brush with inadequacy, however, came via my first fantasy baseball draft of the year.

It wasn't so long ago that I fancied myself a pretty solid fantasy baseball player, always well prepared at draft time and nearly always contending for a title. The devotion of more time to carrying the football content around these parts over the past couple of years, however, plus running FantasySportsBusiness.com, helping to get RapidDraft fantasy football off the ground, working a day job until 2009 ... oh yeah, and seeing my family every once in a while -- let's just say it left me with a bit less time to focus on baseball the past couple of years.

I managed to draft a good enough team in my four-keeper Yahoo! league in 2008 to lock down second place despite an inactive second half, but at some point in 2009, I became that jerk who couldn't even keep his lineup free of "DL" tags. Naturally, then, as we headed to the Fantasy Sports Trade Association conference in Las Vegas last week, I told my boss I'd have no trouble taking the lead on selecting Team WFG in the "experts" draft.

A January baseball draft is bound to present some pitfalls, but things get even tougher when you draft with a group of bright fantasy folks. This group included ...

John Zaleski of Fantasy Factor and Charlie Wiegert of Fanball -- who've been playing fantasy for almost as long as I've been alive and been running fantasy sports companies since before I hit middle school

Tim Heaney -- who's younger than I am but a lead baseball voice for KFFL and the returning champ in this league

Pierre Becquey -- who oversees ESPN's fantasy writing staff and is Canadian, thus probably much more ready to fight at any moment than I am

Scott Swanay of Fantasy Sherpa -- who runs more stat algorithms than there are Molina brothers

Ron Shandler of Baseball HQ -- Let's just say that when one of your buddies drafts Troy Glaus at this point, you quickly chime in with something like "every team needs a DH who can give you 12 games" or "maybe you can draft him a replacement hip next round." When Ron Shandler plucked Glaus in Round 20, though, all I could think was, "Crap, Glaus must be a sleeper this year."

I did, of course, take some time for preparation heading into this thing. I finally activated the Baseball Prospectus subscription that my brother had gifted me nearly a year before and even read some of the articles. I checked out the average draft position and cheatsheet material over at MockDraftCentral.com. I paid closer attention when posting baseball articles by our own pair of Brads and read some of Grey's brain droppings at Razzball.com.

Really, though, after more than a season and a half on not closely following baseball, I headed into the draft last Monday night with a five-point plan:

1. Don't make any picks that draw blatant laughter. Basically, I was hoping not to call out the name of any guy who had just announced his retirement or undergone Tommy John surgery.

2. Nab a few Expos late. Those guys are always underrated.

3. Don't stick only to familiar names. There were about four more Escobars and seven more Cabreras called than I knew existed, so it was clear that a 2003 all-star team wouldn't cut it - despite my best efforts to assemble one, which I'll get to in a minute.

4. Don't ignore players just because they've failed me in the past. This has been one of my bigger problems in fantasy baseball: drafting players a year before their true breakout and then steering clear of them at the start of said breakout season. Rickie Weeks has burned me in the past, but I thought he was worth a shot in Round 12 after he did some good things in a truncated 2009 (at least, according to the magazine in front of me).

5. Don't jump on Nolan Ryan too early. Sure, he'll help me in strikeouts, but at the cost of my ERA and WHIP?

As the first round of this 14-team draft worked toward me at Pick 13, I hoped that Ryan Braun would last. One of the few young players with whom I'm really familiar (having acquired him for my sinking ship of a keeper team last year), Braun's cross-category value is obvious. Not surprisingly, he didn't get to me, but I was pleased to land Prince Fielder after a couple of owners ahead of me took Joe Mauer and Roy Halladay. The Halladay pick carried the bonus of making me look like at least the second-least prepared owner in the group.

It turned out that none of my fears were truly realized. Josh Hamilton brings risk but was worth a shot in Round 6 (72^nd overall), at least I'm guessing by the lack of snickers when I picked him. Adam Wainwright might be coming off a career year, or he might have become the ace last year that folks have projected him to be. Either way, he was a decent No. 1 starter for my team at No. 69.

In the eighth round, I'm not sure if I selected a Canadian Olympic figure skater or some dude who failed as a kicker for three different teams last year. Either way, though, the leg drive of Elvis Andrus should get me some steals, right?

I did pick up Vladimir Guerrero (Round 10, Pick 128), Carlos Zambrano (12, 156) and Chipper Jones (15, 209) to make myself feel comfortable, but none was a big risk in double-digit rounds and each was at least good at some point. I even drafted a couple of young upside guys (Rockies OF Dexter Fowler and Washington RP Drew Storen), because I can't see winning a league like this without hitting on at least one or two values in that area. This is, after all, a 14-team setup with 23-man lineups -- and the leaguemates named above are likely to jump on the in-season breakouts before I even know which team they play for.

I'd be lying, of course, if I said I knew anything about Fowler or Storen before last Monday.

We still have three more rounds to finish up via e-mail, but I'm feeling OK about the team I'm putting together. Maybe that's because no one laughed out loud as I picked on draft night. Maybe it's because my roster finished way ahead in player names called out after I'd already grabbed them. Maybe it's because I just don't know any better.

The season will tell if this group can compete with a bunch of "experts," but at the very least, it feels nice to reconnect with baseball. Now, when should I take Randy Johnson?

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com.

The roster so far ...

Pos.	Player	Rd-Ov. Pick
C	Brian McCann	3--41
C	Dioner Navarro	25--349
1B	Prince Fielder	1--13
2B	Rickie Weeks	11--153
3B	David Wright	2--16
SS	Elvis Andrus	8--100
CI	Chipper Jones	15--209
MI	Jhonny Peralta	13--181
OF	Ichiro	4--44
OF	Josh Hamilton	6--72
OF	Dexter Fowler	17--237
OF	J.D. Drew	20--268
OF	Rick Ankiel	24--324
DH	Vladimir Guerrero	10--128
P	Adam Wainwright	5--69
P	Matt Garza	7--97
P	Carlos Zambrano	12--156
P	Rick Porcello	14--184
P	Scott Feldman	21--293
P	Francisco Rodriguez	9--125
P	Octavio Dotel	16--212
P	Fernando Rodney	18--240
BN	Nick Johnson	19--265
BN	Chris Young	22--296
BN	Marlon Byrd	23--321
BN	Drew Storen	26--352
BN
BN
BN

AFC Championship: Judging Fantasy Conditions for Jets Players

mattschauf — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 20:11:00 GMT

After taking yesterday to check out the fantasy conditions for the Colts players this weekend, it's time to flip the script and see what matching up against the Indy defense will mean for the prospects of the Jets' skill guys.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

vs. Quarterbacks

The Colts started the season much tougher on opposing passers than they finished. After none of the first eight was able to throw more than one touchdown pass against Indianapolis, six of the final eight enemy quarterbacks put up at least two.

That trend should be a bit unsettling, but there are several things within that stretch worth noting: First, only one of those six players attempted fewer than 40 passes (Ryan Fitzpatrick). Second, Fitzpatrick and David Garrard produced their three-touchdown outings within the final three weeks, when the Colts had already clinched. Even though Indy played nearly all of its starters in that one, it did so without arguably the two most significant defenders -- Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis. Finally, Mark Sanchez was one of just two (along with Joe Flacco) to not join that multi-touchdown group.

Sanchez didn't need to do much to help his team beat the Curtis Painter posse in Week 16, as he attempted the fewest passes of any starter against the Colts all year, but it's unlikely that his team will only call on him for 19 throws this time around.

Despite the weaker second half, facing the third-most pass attempts all season and allowing the third-most completions, the Colts still finished the season allowing the 13^th-fewest passing yards and tying for 10^th-fewest touchdown passes yielded.

For his part, Sanchez enjoyed just two multiple-touchdown games all season, compared with five in which he threw more than one interception.

Verdict: With Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Brett Favre piloting the other three remaining teams, Mark Sanchez easily stands as the weakest fantasy play at his position this weekend.

vs. Running Backs

Although certainly far from dominating in run defense, Indianapolis hasn't been a pushover in that area this season. The Colts ranked middle of the pack in yards per carry allowed (17^th, 4.3) but tied for eighth-fewest rushing touchdowns allowed to running backs. That came despite seeing the seventh-most carries and giving up the seventh-most yards. This marked the third time in the past five years that Indy has allowed 10 or fewer total rushing scores.

Of course, the Colts' greatest weapon against opposing rushing attacks is its own scoring offense. Pressured to try to match Manning and Co. (or, more often, play from behind), opponents often have to run the ball less than they might like. Even the Jets only handed 16 times in the first half of the previous meeting. After Manning left following his first drive of the third quarter, however, New York soon climbed on top and finished with 39 carries.

It's tough to glean a whole lot from that matchup, unfortunately, as Indy weakside linebacker Clint Session and strong safety Melvin Bullitt joined Freeney and Mathis on the sideline for that contest. Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene combined for 200 yards rushing then, but it's hard to imagine conditions lining up for anywhere near that output this time.

What we have found out over the past couple of weeks, though, is that Greene is a pretty dynamic runner and the likely lead back for the Jets in this one. The rookie garnered 44 carries to Jones' 29 over the past two games and averaged 6 yards, more than double the 2.6 that Jones contributed.

We also know that the Jets aren't set up well to take advantage of Indy's generosity to receiving backs. The Colts allowed the sixth-most receptions to running backs in the league this year and tied for second-most receiving touchdowns yielded to the position (though two came in the final three weeks). The Jets, meanwhile, completed 18 fewer passes to backs than any other team for the year. More than half of their 28 completions to runners went to Leon Washington, whose season ended in Week 7. Jones caught 10 passes during the regular season, and Greene's 4-yard reception at San Diego on Sunday was his first as a pro.

Verdict: Between Shonn Greene's performance the past two weeks and the Jets' commitment to the run, the rookie has to be considered at least among the top three fantasy backs in any format for the weekend. It comes down to scoring format, I think, between him and Reggie Bush at No. 2. Jones, on the other hand, will only offer value if he finds the end zone. That makes him pretty risky.

vs. Wide Receivers

The high number of receptions by running backs against the Colts can be attributed to the same factor that led to this defense allowing the league's most receptions by wideouts. Even though Indy changed head coaches and defensive coordinators this year, it's defensive philosophy remains one of allowing short passes while keeping opponents out of the end zone.

That's why enemy receivers caught 224 passes, tallied the seventh-most yards and managed to tie for just 17^th-most touchdown catches. Even that number (12) got inflated a bit by four wideout scores over the final three weeks.

As I mentioned earlier, with Peyton Manning due to play the whole way this time around, the Jets will probably have to throw the ball significantly more than the 19 attempts they logged in the first meeting. Before Week 16, only two quarterbacks attempted fewer than 30 throws against the Colts, and Marc Bulger and David Garrard each put it up at least 26 times.

Verdict: Jerricho Cotchery leads the Jets with nine receptions in the post-season and led the team with 57 catches during the regular season despite missing time and being limited at others by injury. He's a solid option in point-per-reception setups such as ours and could always sneak into the end zone. Braylon Edwards has only once caught more than three passes with Cotchery in the lineup, including just two receptions in each playoff game so far. He's OK down the line but not particularly attractive.

vs. Tight ends

Despite allowing so many catches by wideouts and backs, the Colts gave up just the sixth-fewest receptions to tight ends all year and only two touchdowns. Just two opposing tight ends caught as many as five passes against Indy (neither more than that), and just two reached 50 yards.

The Colts didn't face the world's strongest slate of opposing tight ends but were able to limit Vernon Davis (three receptions, 20 yards, TD) and allowed Dustin Keller just 19 yards on his three catches in Week 16. Todd Heap, meanwhile, produced an unexciting four catches for 35 yards on Saturday night.

Verdict: It's possible that Dustin Keller gets more looks from his quarterback in this one, but he has been used so infrequently this season that the matchup easily places him fourth among tight ends this week.

vs. Defense

The Jets' top-flight pass defense can be encouraged by the fact that Peyton Manning put up his worst interception rate since 2002 this year, ranking 19^th among qualified quarterbacks in the regular season.

On the other hand, it's never nice to go up against the league's seventh-best scoring offense, and Manning also posted the fourth-best touchdown rate at quarterback this year. On top of that, he and his offensive line compiled the league's lowest sack rate. The Jets figure to have trouble getting pressure on him, just like every other defense does. For what it's worth, they didn't hit him at all before Manning left the game in Week 16.

The Colts' running game is far from strong, but the pass offense is plenty good enough to set up for short-yardage rushing scores. All in all, the Jets always bring potential on D, but a matchup with the Colts is never favorable. It doesn't help that Joseph Addai and Donald Brown combined for just two fumbles all year, losing only one.

Verdict: Despite less than ideal conditions, the chance that the NFC title game could turn into a shootout ultimately makes the Jets look like this weekend's No. 2 fantasy defense (unless you want to take a shot on one of those "classic" Favre multi-interception games).

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

AFC Championship: Judging Fantasy Conditions for Colts Players

mattschauf — Mon, 18 Jan 2010 20:02:00 GMT

If you drafted a playoff fantasy team before the first round, you obviously would have (or, at least, should have) done so with an eye on being able to field a worthwhile team each week and pile up as many total points as possible.

If you're heading into the draft room this week, however, you have no chance at the overall prize and are clearly playing for just this week.

So, although we never know for sure how many rounds a team will last in the playoffs, the change in circumstance makes this week's matchups all the more important. That's why I think it's time to get deep into the numbers and look at what one needs to target with so few players to choose from.

Let's start with the seemingly most unlikely member of the 2010 final four, which also happens to bring the toughest pass defense.

N.Y. JETS

vs. Quarterbacks

The Jets were the toughest team in the league on fantasy quarterbacks during the regular season. They not only allowed the fewest points to opposing quarterbacks but did so by a pretty wide margin. New York gave up 36.7 fewer fantasy points than the next team (Buffalo), with no other consecutive teams separated in the standings by more than 18.

The Jets allowed just eight touchdown passes all year -- six fewer than any other defense -- and let just one quarterback (Chad Henne) throw more than one in a game. Just four quarterbacks reached 200 yards passing against the Jets, with only Tom Brady -- in his second meeting -- surpassing 241.

Of course, although the Jets were stingy all year to opposing passing games, Peyton Manning fared pretty well in roughly a half's worth of work against them in Week 16. Manning didn't get sacked at all before leaving that game and did complete two-thirds of his passes (14 of 21). Facing the defense that led the league in fewest net yards per pass attempt (4.6 -- passing yards minus sack yards divided by attempts), the league MVP threw for 192 yards in less than three quarters for a rate of 9.1 per attempt. He didn't produce a touchdown throw, but his team ran for two scores in tallying up 15 points before Manning checked out.

The Jets, for their part, didn't allow anything to Cincinnati's anemic pass offense in the first round but allowed Philip Rivers to throw for 298 yards on Sunday. New York still won the game and forced two interceptions from a guy who had tossed just nine all year, but Rivers put up one touchdown and barely missed another before scoring on a sneak. His 7.1 net yards per pass attempt on 40 throws also stood as a much higher mark than the Jets allowed during the regular season.

Verdict: Treat Peyton Manning as Peyton Manning this week, rather than the next guy to have trouble against Darrelle Revis & Co.

vs. Running Backs

It stood to reason that the Jets would be in at least some trouble on run defense after losing nose tackle Kris Jenkins for the season in Week 6, but that never came to pass. In fact, a defense that allowed 4 yards per carry to opposing backs through the first six games gave up just 3.6 per rush over the final 10.

Where the big guy would have come in handy, though, would have been in short-yardage and goal-line situations. Six of the 10 rushing touchdowns that New York allowed to running backs during the regular season came in the final eight games -- and that would have been seven scores if Maurice Jones-Drew hadn't kneed fantasy owners at the goal line. Among those six touchdowns, Joseph Addai (from 21 yards out) and Donald Brown (7) each scored on the ground in the last meeting with the Jets.

The Jets didn't have much trouble Sunday with a Chargers running game that struggled all year, but Cedric Benson had his way with them in the wild-card round.

Don't look for a ton of passing points for running backs against the Jets, either, which helped them allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points for the season in point-per-reception formats such as ours. Only three opposing backs caught as many as four passes against New York, which tied for the sixth-fewest receptions yielded to the position. Only Kevin Faulk reached 50 yards receiving, and no back caught a touchdown pass.

Verdict: Addai retains scoring potential because of the strength of his offense but doesn't look like one of the top two running backs in the remaining field. We can't expect much in the way of yardage, which makes him more of a boom-or-bust proposition.

vs. Wide Receivers

This is another position against which the Jets proved stingiest in the league, but I think it might be more telling to highlight the successes of opposing receivers rather than building the easy case against them.

Only five wideouts all year caught as many as five passes against the Jets -- and four of them were Patriots. Three of those players surpassed five catches, and you should notice some similarities among them: Julian Edelman (eight), Wes Welker (15) and Austin Collie (six).

Sure, all three happen to be white dudes, but the more-important point is that all three are also possession-type receivers who often line up in the slot. As strong as the Jets are at corner on the outside, it's apparent that a couple of well-planned offenses with smart quarterbacks figured out that it's best to attack the Jets in the middle of the field.

Beyond that, I think it's worth noting that although the Jets allowed the second-fewest touchdown catches by opposing wideouts during the regular season, three of the five came from more than 20 yards away. Mike Sims-Walker (26 yards out), Lee Evans (37) and Ted Ginn (53) all bring a fair amount of speed to the position, as does Nate Washington, who scored from closer against the Jets. (The fifth touchdown went to physical freak Randy Moss from just 4 yards out.)

Pierre Garcon has emerged as a big-play threat in the Colts passing game and should draw a fair number of matchups against Lito Sheppard, who can be burned deep. The Chargers got Vincent Jackson seven catches and 111 yards Sunday by moving him around to get him away from Darrelle Revis.

Of course, all that said, the Jets did not only allow the fewest PPR fantasy points to wide receivers but again led the next team by a wider margin than separated any other consecutive clubs. Despite potential upside for Collie and Garcon, Reggie Wayne faces a matchup with the league's best cover man.

Verdict: Austin Collie looks better than his teammates here, with Pierre Garcon also more attractive than Reggie Wayne.

vs. Tight Ends

While Collie led the Colts with six catches in the first meeting with the Jets, Dallas Clark finished just behind him with four. Together, they caught nine of the 14 passes that Manning completed being pulled with other starters.

The Jets stood as the second-toughest defense on fantasy tight ends in the regular season, but Clark is really more of a slot receiver for the Colts -- the spot that we just highlighted as having produced the best results against this tough pass defense.

No tight end caught more than four passes against New York all season, and only three reached 50 yards. Clark, in just about a half of work against the team, finished with four receptions for 57 yards. Antonio Gates led the Chargers with eight receptions in Sunday's loss.

Verdict: In spite of (actually, perhaps because of, thanks to the difficult conditions for Wayne) the matchup, Dallas Clark is clearly the strongest tight end option still playing and should be drafted significantly earlier than the rest, particularly in PPR formats.

vs. Defense

Mark Sanchez was allowed to get pretty comfy against a weak Bengals pass rush that managed just one quarterback hit and no sacks. As a result, the rookie went 12-of-15 in victory.

The Chargers got after him a bit more, sacking Sanchez once, hitting him three times and forcing one interception. Still, San Diego doesn't bring near the rush that the Colts do. All three of their hits came from blitzing defensive backs.

Dwight Freeney played quite sparingly in the first meeting with the Jets and still came away with two sacks. Robert Mathis didn't play at all. Between that pair and a defense more willing to blitz than at any time under Tony Dungy, Sanchez could be in for an erratic day.

Verdict: Like Dallas Clark, the Indy defense looks like the best fantasy bet at the position.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

My Ballot: The best of Fantasy 2009

mattschauf — Thu, 14 Jan 2010 19:03:00 GMT

The Associated Press names its All-Pro team every year. So in fantasy, we have the FSWA awards.

Last year, the Fantasy Sports Writers Association voted only on the fantasy MVP (choosing DeAngelo Williams), but this year's ballot has been expanded to include rookie of the year and an All-Fantasy team.

The voting deadline is Monday, but my votes have already been submitted. Here they are, along with my reasoning.

Most valuable player -- The FSWA provided five candidates here and asked us to rank them. I put the five in this order ...

1. Chris Johnson

2. Ray Rice

3. Maurice Jones-Drew

4. Aaron Rodgers

5. Drew Brees

Johnson should be the clear winner here, as the Tennessee back likely went in the first or second round of just about any average-sized fantasy league this year. After he started a bit slow, we all know about the numbers that followed. I think trying to justify Johnson as the choice would be a waste of keystrokes.

I did debate Rice and Jones-Drew in the second spot, however, and I think I view "most valuable" a bit differently than many folks. It seems that many of my peers see the most value in the player who most outperforms his draft position. I won't call that interpretation wrong, but my thinking is that if you select a running back in the eighth round and he fails to produce, the impact on your roster will probably be minimal.

If, on the other hand, your first-round runner washes out (like he did for any dope who favored Matt Forte early), you're likely to put yourself at more of a disadvantage. This parallels the fantasy axiom that you don't win your fantasy league with your first pick, but you sure can lose it. For that reason, I think getting just the production you were hoping for out of the guy you select at the top represents more value than the middle-rounder who emerges.

That said, I favored Rice just ahead of MJD because he was a more consistent performer in the point-per-reception format that we use here at RapidDraft. Jones-Drew finished one point ahead of Rice in our scoring system, but half of the Jaguar's 16 total touchdowns came in three games. Rice, meanwhile, caught 25 more passes for the year and only once caught fewer than three in a game after Week 1. I wouldn't argue either in the second spot, but Rice's consistency and near omnipresence on top-finishing RapidDraft teams led me to lean his way.

As for the quarterbacks, Rodgers outscored Brees from a lower draft position. As opposed to my thinking on running backs above, the strategy of waiting for a quarterback is pretty commonly carried into fantasy drafts. The fact that Rodgers rewarded those who picked him two three or four rounds after Brees came off the board makes him an easy choice for me here.

Rookie of the year (Again, we were given five candidates and asked to rank them.)

1. Percy Harvin

2. Knowshon Moreno

3. Hakeem Nicks

4. Austin Collie

5. Chris Wells

Filling out this portion of the ballot showed me that, although we got worthwhile contributions from a pretty fair number of first-year players, this season wasn't long on consistent scoring among rookies.

Whereas Matt Forte proved a set-and-forget option throughout 2008, and Steve Slaton, Chris Johnson and Kevin Smith came close to or eventually reached such status, I find it telling that three of the five candidates are receivers who didn't even technically start for most of the year.

Wells at No. 5 was the easiest pick for me. He's the most attractive keeper of the group going forward, but he didn't post three straight games with as many as 14 carries until the final three weeks of most fantasy seasons (14 through 16). That meant that we could never trust him for production, even when the Arizona rookie was good more often than not against a favorable second-half schedule. Ultimately, he also finished with the fewest points among the five players in our scoring system, despite six touchdowns in a seven-week span that started in Week 10.

Collie fell behind Nicks because, after exploding onto the scene with 14 catches for 162 yards and three touchdowns in back-to-back games against Seattle and Tennessee, he was a pretty mediocre fantasy contributor the rest of the way. Collie reached 50 yards receiving just three times in the final 11 games and fell short of 40 on seven occasions.

Nicks, on the other hand, endured a slow start -- due, at least in part, to injury - but shouldn't have really hurt fantasy owners, who had no reason to start him at that point. Following a one-catch (for a 54-yard touchdown) outing against Kansas City, though, the Giants' first-rounder reeled off an 11-week run in which he let us know exactly what we should expect. Nicks averaged four receptions and 66 yards through Week 16, catching at least four balls eight times, never grabbing fewer than two and only once hauling in as many as six. Seven times he topped 50 yards, and his 723 in that span project to more than 1,000 over a full season. It's tough to ask a rookie for big numbers, so consistency in production should be welcomed.

Moreno was no model of consistency, but he did emerge from a muddled backfield to be the most-used ball carrier and topped 60 yards seven times. When his yardage and lack of touchdowns hurt at fantasy playoff time, the Denver rookie at least caught three passes in three straight games to help PPR owners. He was the best of the rookie backs over the course of the year, and that tends to be the toughest position at which to find starting value.

Harvin gets the top nod as the best overall producer among these rookies. His two return touchdowns helped to bolster an already-strong receiving line of 60 catches, 790 yards and six scores, and Harvin might have presented even more value if his offense weren't so long on scoring options.

All-Fantasy team -- Now we come to my favorite portion of the ballot, where we get to fill in each spot with whomever we want. Here are my choices with brief explanations ...

QB Aaron Rodgers -- As I stated above, he rewarded fantasy owners who didn't jump on Brees, Tom Brady or Peyton Manning several rounds earlier. Expect Rodgers to be one of the guys you'll have to jump on early to get going forward.

RB Chris Johnson and Ray Rice -- Johnson, again, needs no explanation. Rice, I think, gains even more separation from Jones-Drew when you take away the "most valuable" context. He emerged as one of the top fantasy backs around despite going relatively late in most drafts.

WR Andre Johnson and Miles Austin -- Larry Fitzgerald was the favorite top receiver at draft time last summer, but Johnson tied for third-most catches in the league, led the way in yardage and added nine touchdowns. He caught fewer than four passes in a game just twice all year and topped 60 yards in every game but the first (against the Jets' Darrelle Revis). Austin, meanwhile, began the year outside of even his own team's starting lineup only to finish third in the league in receiving yards (1,320) and tied for fourth in touchdown catches (11). Had he started all year and produced like that, Austin would have finished the year as the undisputed No. 1 fantasy wideout.

TE Vernon Davis -- It finally happened. After so much teasing with his potential, Davis exceeded even the most optimistic expectations by tying for the league lead in touchdown catches (13) while ranking fifth among tight ends with 78 catches and 965 yards.

K Nate Kaeding -- He led the league in scoring, missed two fewer field goals than David Akers, went 3-for-4 from 50 yards and out, and tied for second in the league with 50 extra points. A good kicker with a top offense is always the way to go at the end of the draft.

Team D Philadelphia -- New Orleans likely outscored Philly in most formats, but that could be attributed almost completely to eight defensive touchdowns. The Saints' defense fell apart over the second half after the injury bug started to bite, whereas the Eagles allowed fewer points (barely), collected more sacks and grabbed just one interception fewer. A couple of scores from All-Pro punt returner DeSean Jackson didn't hurt either.

Top IDP: Patrick Willis -- There were several good choices here, but Willis wins my vote based on being the top scorer at his position, rewarding fantasy owners who went ahead and spent the early pick needed to acquire him (whereas plenty of linebacker value can be mined later) and sustaining his production level on a more consistent basis than top-scoring lineman Jared Allen. The Vikings end provided a bigger split between his score and the second-best lineman, but more than half of his 14.5 sacks (7.5) came in two meetings with Green Bay. Charles Woodson finished even farther ahead of his defensive-back competition, but Bernard Pollard -- who played in only 13 games -- actually outscored him on a per-game basis in my scoring system, and Woodson was similarly bolstered by a couple of huge games such as his Thanksgiving massacre in Detroit.

So, now that I've shared and explained my picks, let me know where you think I'm wrong.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games and a member of the FSWA. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Playoffs: Green Bay Attractive This Weekend and Beyond

mattschauf — Fri, 08 Jan 2010 18:06:00 GMT

The fourth game of Wild Card weekend seems like the easiest to call and presents a favorite of mine to do some damage in these playoffs.

At this time last year, Arizona looked like a lucky team backing into the playoffs by virtue of its location in a bad division. Of course, all the Cardinals did from there was reel off three victories and push Pittsburgh to the brink in the Super Bowl -- doing their part to quash the notion of needing to "get hot at the right time."

(That is, unless you properly realize that the "right time" is January and not December.)

Now, Arizona hit those playoffs on the back of an explosive offense and led the field with an average of 29.5 points through the four games -- scoring at least 23 in each. The Cardinals also got fairly lucky, though, facing a rookie quarterback in the first round, Matt Ryan, and picking him off twice before Jake Delhomme's notorious meltdown in the ensuing round.

For the 2008 postseason, Arizona intercepted four more passes than any other team in the playoff field and won only the Carolina game by more than seven points. Don't get me wrong: A team isn't going to do what the Cardinals did last winter without being good, but Arizona clearly had some things go their way as well. That's bound to be the case for many a successful playoff team, but it's tough to count on such fortune for a second straight year.

The interceptions, for one thing, aren't likely to come from the Packers this weekend. Aaron Rodgers' seven picks through the regular season tied him for second-fewest in the league, and throwing them among 541 attempts gave him the NFL's best interception ratio. In two seasons as a starter, Rodgers has endured just four multiple-interception outings -- two of those coming at Tampa when he was sacked a combined nine times.

Arizona, meanwhile, heads into this game with doubts about the availability (or at least effectiveness) of top cover corner Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a somewhat gimpy Antrel Rolle starting at free safety without his top backup (Matt Ware, on injured reserve).

Up front, the Cardinals have to be worried about the broken thumb of left end Calais Campbell, who tied for the team lead with seven sacks during the regular season. It's tough to know how much or whether playing with a cast will limit Campbell, but I'd have to think it at least impedes arguably the team's second-best pass rusher.

Rodgers was highly vulnerable to sacks earlier in the year, but since right tackle Mark Tauscher entered the lineup for good, five of seven opponents have recorded one sack or fewer. If Arizona can't get consistent pressure on Rodgers, it'll be vulnerable to a pass offense that threw the fourth most touchdowns in the league. In addition, a Cardinals run defense that started the year strong finished with a 4.5-yard per-carry average. That's bad news against a back in Ryan Grant who added big-play pop late in the year to his previously steady manner. Further, Brandon Jackson and Ahman Green are no slouches themselves, combining for four touchdowns in the Week 16 beatdown of Seattle.

The Green Bay defense, meanwhile, comes in ranked seventh in scoring (18.6 points allowed per game) but did allow a lot of touchdown passes this season -- 29, to be exact, tied for fourth-most in the league. That's good news for an always lethal Arizona passing game. The bad news, however, is that Anquan Boldin drags ankle and knee injuries into Sunday and will be a gametime decision. The earlier placement of left tackle Mike Gandy on IR also won't help against a constantly improving Packer pass rush that brings stud rookie Clay Matthews from that side.

On the ground, rookie Chris Wells has pumped up the Cardinals' rush offense, but the running figures to be difficult against a Packer team that held opponents to 3.6 yards per attempt in the regular season, second best in the league.

In addition to fitting the mold of top 10 scoring offense and defense, Green Bay comes out on top in the direct matchups here and has more in its favor. Just about anything is possible in the NFL playoffs, but Green Bay sure looks good from here.

The total Packers package, in fact -- particularly the tightened pass protection, which was the key weakness in the two losses to Minnesota -- leaves me liking their potential to win more than just one playoff game. That, of course, would significantly enhance the value of any Green Bay fantasy option.

Along with the obvious key offensive players, James Jones and Jordy Nelson could be worth late-round looks, if you similarly believe in Green Bay's potential to advance. On the other side, Kurt Warner could still be a quality fantasy option to pair with a starter on by this week. Larry Fitzgerald, on the other hand, doesn't look as good as usual, as a matchup with Charles Woodson in a lone playoff outing doesn't present ideal conditions.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Playoffs: Tough Call, but Pats Over Ravens

mattschauf — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 20:31:00 GMT

After spending my previous two posts this week delving into trends, it's time to get right into the final two contests for the coming weekend and, specifically, what the matchups will mean for fantasy players.

BALTIMORE at NEW ENGLAND

No matter what anyone says, we're all just guessing at the outcome of every playoff game. This one, though - as far as I'm concerned - is the toughest to guess.

We watched the two teams play to a virtual tie earlier this season in Foxborough, with Mark Clayton's fourth-quarter, fourth-down drop helping to clinch a New England victory. Of course, that game came just four weeks into Tom Brady's return from knee reconstruction, nearing the end of "what's wrong with Brady" mania. It included a surprising number of passes (47 attempts) from Baltimore and four different Patriot backs garnering from five to seven carries.

There was a healthier Ed Reed and Wes Welker was on the field. The Ravens had yet to lose a starting corner (and then his replacement) to injured reserve. The Patriots weren't fully into their defensive backfield shuffle aimed at finding the right mix both at safety and corner.

The game did produce some enduring trends, though. Brady completed 65.6 percent of his throws in edging Baltimore that day, almost exactly his number for the season (65.7). He reached or exceeded 65 percent completions in eight of 12 games after that one, as well. On the other side, though, Ray Rice was probably the top individual offensive performer on the day, picking up 103 yards on just 11 carries and 49 more on five receptions. Even if you take away his 50-yard run, Rice averaged 5.3 on the rest of his attempts against a run defense much stouter than its final numbers show.

Fantasy owners know Rice and Brady as matchup-defying players, guys who can put up numbers against anyone. The stoutness of that New England run defense, however, and the injuries to Baltimore's secondary should come into play.

The Patriots played significant stretches this season without lead inside linebacker Jerod Mayo, nose tackle Vince Wilfork and left end Ty Warren (not all simultaneous). Most recently, New England allowed 4.6 yards per carry (up from just less than 4.4) over the final three games with Wilfork and Warren out of the starting lineup. Despite still-lackluster yardage numbers overall, New England yielded the third-fewest rushing scores in the league all year, with two of the six coming from Houston last week - with Wilfork and Warren out.

One would have to think the presence of those two linemen was at least a significant factor in Baltimore handing off just 17 times in the first meeting and having Flacco attempt his most throws all year. Willis McGahee's recent reemergence and increased stability in the New England defensive backfield should certainly push the Ravens to seek more balance in that play calling.

The loss of Wes Welker to the Reliant Stadium turf last Sunday should bring the Patriots' running game more into focus as well, and returns to health by Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor strengthen the team in that area. Baltimore, however, has continued to show little vulnerability in run defense, allowing just five opposing rushers to reach 70 yards all year en route to a league-low 3.4 yards allowed per rush.

Baltimore seems much more likely to get some production from the ground game, but it'll have to defy the season numbers and punch it into the end zone that way to emerge in this one.

That's because the passing matchups clearly favor New England. Even without Welker on the field, the Patriots have Randy Moss, Welker Lite (Julian Edelman), a field stretcher in Sam Aiken, receiving ability at tight end in Ben Watson and Chris Baker and one of the league's best receiving backs in Kevin Faulk.

Derrick Mason got off to a terrific start for the Ravens in the first meeting but was shut down after the initial scoring drive. Although Demetrius Williams has flashed some more of the deep speed that has gotten people excited about his potential, no one other than Mason and Rice has proved a dependable target. Rice was the only Raven to catch more than two passes in last week's victory at Oakland. No player besides Rice and Mason has led the team in pass targets since Week 13, and Todd Heap faces a New England defense that allowed the fifth-fewest receptions by tight ends this year.

Baltimore was the only defense to sack Brady more than twice this season, but the Ravens have surpassed two in just four of the past 12 games. Even then, they only got to Brady three times, and the penalties they accrued have the unit admittedly wary of keeping hits within the allowed "strike zone." That's not going to speed up an already disappointing pass rush.

So, I believe it basically comes down to whether the Baltimore rush offense can outperform the New England pass offense, or which squad will win the turnover battle. Either way, I feel better siding with Tom Brady and the game-planning of Bill Belichick.

For fantasy purposes, I also like New England's potential to advance beyond the divisional round better than that of Baltimore. Of course, for what it's worth, each team fits into the mold of top-10 scoring offense and scoring defense.

Coming tomorrow: Green Bay-Arizona, and the bye teams

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).

Playoffs: Newsflash -- Target Teams That Score and Play D

mattschauf — Thu, 07 Jan 2010 14:47:00 GMT

In my previous write-up on shifting gears from regular-season fantasy to the playoff version, I started to get into the importance of scoring defense. Although I still believe in that track and will continue down it, I'm seeing that scoring offense appears just as important.

Now there's a bombshell. The teams that tend to fare well in the playoffs are those that can score points and stop opponents from doing so.

That might seem like a no-brainer when you think about it, but how many prognosticators are pointing to those areas as they talk about who will win some games in January? Aren't you hearing much more of the "getting hot at the right time" bologna?

Over the past six seasons -- no, I can't give a good reason for choosing that stretch, but I think it's a decent-sized sample - 17 of the 24 teams to make up the final four in the NFL playoffs ranked among the top 10 in the regular season in scoring defense (fewest points allowed). Sixteen of those 24 teams finished among the 10 best in offensive scoring.

Twelve of the 24 teams to make it as far as a conference championship game in the past six seasons enjoyed top 10 status in both categories. Of the 12 that didn't, 10 finished among the 10 best in one of the two categories.

That means that only two of the 24 teams to play for a trip to the Super Bowl in the past six years finished the regular season outside the top 10 in both scoring offense and scoring defense. One was the 2007 Super Bowl-champion Giants, who led the league in sacks in the regular season and rode that pass rush to the fewest points per game in the postseason and five interceptions among the three NFC quarterbacks they faced. The other was Atlanta, which relied completely on the Michael Vick factor.

Four of the past five years featured at least two squads among the final four who ranked top 10 in scoring offense and scoring defense, and last year missed only because Baltimore scored the NFL's 11^th-most points on offense.

So, if the key to playing successful playoff fantasy football is determining which teams will go far, then start by looking at those who can score and limit scoring. Green Bay (seventh in scoring defense, third in scoring offense), Baltimore (third, ninth), New England (fifth, sixth), Indianapolis (eighth, seventh) and Minnesota (10^th, second) carry favorable résumés into the games that really count.

(If you're wondering which to favor between offense and defense in finding a team that only ranks highly in one or the other, defense seems to have the slight edge - if maybe a negligible one. Six final-four teams have ranked top 10 in scoring defense and not scoring offense, while four have done the opposite.)

Of course, a couple of teams that look like prime candidates to sneak in from the less-favorable pile will play each other Saturday night.

PHILADELPHIA at DALLAS

In addition to the trends that I pointed out above, at least one team in five of the past six years has made the final four despite finishing the regular-season outside of the top 10 in scoring offense, scoring defense or both.

The Eagles - in addition to entering this game with two losses to the Cowboys already on their 2009 scorecard - carry the fifth-best scoring offense and 19^thscoring defense. Dallas, on the other hand, allowed the second-fewest points all year and scored the 14^th most.

Although there's no denying that the Cowboys' offense is better with Miles Austin as its No. 1 wideout, Dallas actually averaged a half-point less in 11 outings with him as a starter (since the KC breakout) than it did for the season. The Cowboys haven't scored more than 24 points in a game since Week 8 and fell short of 20 four times in the final nine games.

All that is to say that as dominating as Dallas looked against Philadelphia last Sunday afternoon, the margin for error might not be quite as broad as you might think. The Eagles, after all, averaged four more points per game than the Cowboys and produced a league-most 21 pass plays of 40 yards or more. It's no secret that Philly brings the kind of quick-strike ability that just needs one coverage breakdown to put points on the board.

Of course, the Cowboys managed to get through the first two meetings without any big breakdowns, holding DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin to no more than three catches and fewer than 50 yards in each contest. Those performances plus a much stronger rushing attack on Dallas' side make the Cowboys a better bet to prevail in this third meeting. The Eagles' only chances will be hitting on a deep ball or two, suddenly rediscovering something close to the old Brian Westbrook and/or peppering Tony Romo with their patented blitzes - which haven't worked as well with an unsteady group of linebackers.

Ultimately, this is a good game to target when drafting your playoff fantasy team. Although Dallas serves as the clear favorite, each team can produce on offense and can get hot in its weaker facet (scoring D for the Eagles, scoring O for the Cowboys), and either would be a threat to its next-round opponent.

Selecting a quarterback duo of Romo and Donovan McNabb, for instance, would offer plenty of scoring potential and guard against the risk of guessing incorrectly in this matchup. The same goes for the defenses, which finished tied for third (Philly) and seventh (Dallas) in sacks during the regular season.

Matt Schauf is the senior football writer for World Fantasy Games. E-mail him at matt.schauf@worldfantasygames.com. Follow him on Twitter (mschauf63).